Contrast-enhanced CT radiomics improves the prediction of abdominal aortic aneurysm progression.

Objectives: To determine if three-dimensional (3D) radiomic features of contrast-enhanced CT (CECT) images improve prediction of rapid abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) growth.

Methods: This longitudinal cohort study retrospectively analyzed 195 consecutive patients (mean age, 72.4 years ± 9.1) with a baseline CECT and a subsequent CT or MR at least 6 months later. 3D radiomic features were measured for 3 regions of the AAA, viz. the vessel lumen only; the intraluminal thrombus (ILT) and aortic wall only; and the entire AAA sac (lumen, ILT, and wall). Multiple machine learning (ML) models to predict rapid growth, defined as the upper tercile of observed growth (> 0.25 cm/year), were developed using data from 60% of the patients. Diagnostic accuracy was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in the remaining 40% of patients.

Results: The median AAA maximum diameter was 3.9 cm (interquartile range [IQR], 3.3-4.4 cm) at baseline and 4.4 cm (IQR, 3.7-5.4 cm) at the mean follow-up time of 3.2 ± 2.4 years (range, 0.5-9 years). A logistic regression model using 7 radiomic features of the ILT and wall had the highest AUC (0.83; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73-0.88) in the development cohort. In the independent test cohort, this model had a statistically significantly higher AUC than a model including maximum diameter, AAA volume, and relevant clinical factors (AUC = 0.78, 95% CI, 0.67-0.87 vs AUC = 0.69, 95% CI, 0.57-0.79; p = 0.04).

Conclusion: A radiomics-based method focused on the ILT and wall improved prediction of rapid AAA growth from CECT imaging.

Key Points: • Radiomic analysis of 195 abdominal CECT revealed that an ML-based model that included textural features of intraluminal thrombus (if present) and aortic wall improved prediction of rapid AAA progression compared to maximum diameter. • Predictive accuracy was higher when radiomic features were obtained from the thrombus and wall as opposed to the entire AAA sac (including lumen), or the lumen alone. • Logistic regression of selected radiomic features yielded similar accuracy to predict rapid AAA progression as random forests or support vector machines.