Cumulative Incidence and Factors Associated With Subsequent Vertebral Compression Fractures: A Nationwide Population-based Study.

Objective: Patients who experience vertebral compression fractures are vulnerable to subsequent vertebral compression fractures (SVCFs). The purpose of this nationwide population-based study was to determine the age-specific cumulative incidence and factors associated with SVCFs in South Korea.

Methods: Diagnostic codes, medical costs, and comorbid diseases in patients who had a vertebral compression fracture in 2011 and 2012 were collected from the National Health Insurance Service database of South Korea from 2007 to 2018. Demographic data, mortality rate, medical cost, and frequency of vertebroplasty or kyphoplasty were compared between patients with an initial fracture (IF) and those with a subsequent fracture (SF).

Results: The cumulative incidence of SVCFs over 4 years was 24.4% and increased rapidly within a few months after the IF. In 2011, SVCFs occurred in 17,004 patients, and the incidence rate per 100,000 people was 113.6 (84.9 in men vs. 138.5 in women). The odds ratio (OR) of SVCFs in units of 10 years was the highest in women in their 60s, at 2.89. However, in men in their 70s, the OR was the highest, at 2.51. The rates of vertebroplasty or kyphoplasty, medical expenses, and mortality rate were significantly higher in the SF group than in the IF group (P < 0.01).

Conclusions: The age-specific cumulative incidence of SVCFs per 100,000 people was 113.6. SVCFs were more frequent among women, the elderly, and patients who underwent vertebroplasty or kyphoplasty. Women in their 60s or above and men in their 70s or above were at highest risk.