Cost-Effectiveness and Impact of a Targeted Age- and Incidence-based West Nile Virus Vaccine Strategy.

Background: West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of arboviral disease in the United States and is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. A previous analysis found that a vaccination program targeting persons aged ≥60 years was more cost-effective than universal vaccination, but costs remained high.

Methods: We used a mathematical Markov model to evaluate cost-effectiveness of an age- and incidence-based WNV vaccination program. We grouped states and large counties (≥100 000 persons aged ≥60 years) by median annual WNV incidence rates from 2004 to 2017 for persons aged ≥60 years. We defined WNV incidence thresholds, in increments of 0.5 cases per 100 000 persons ≥60 years. We calculated potential cost per WNV vaccine-prevented case and per quality adjusted life-years (QALYs) saved.

Results: Vaccinating persons aged ≥60 years in states with an annual incidence of WNV neuroinvasive disease of ≥0.5 per 100 000 resulted in approximately half the cost per health outcome averted compared to vaccinating persons aged ≥60 years in the contiguous United States. This approach could potentially prevent 37% of all neuroinvasive disease cases and 63% of WNV-related deaths nationally. Employing such a threshold at a county level further improved cost-effectiveness ratios while preventing 19% and 30% of WNV-related neuroinvasive disease cases and deaths, respectively.

Conclusions: An age- and incidence-based WNV vaccination program could be a more cost-effective strategy than an age-based program while still having a substantial impact on lowering WNV-related morbidity and mortality.