Long-term follow-up of branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms with No change in first 5 Years of diagnosis.

Background: Discontinuation of branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (BD-IPMN) surveillance after 5 years of no change remains controversial. Long-term outcomes of BD-IPMN without significant changes in the first 5 years were evaluated.

Methods: We performed a multi-center retrospective analysis of patients with BD-IPMN diagnosis from 2005 to 2011 (follow-up until 2017). Significant changes were defined as pancreatic cancer (PC), pancreatectomy, high-risk stigmata (HRS), worrisome features (WF) and worrisome EUS features (WEUS).

Results: Of 982 patients who had no significant changes, 5 (0.5%), 7 (0.7%), 99 (10.1%), 4 (0.4%) patients developed PC, HRS, WF, WEUS, respectively, post-5 years. PC and HRS/WF/WEUS incidences at 12 years were 1.0% and 29.0%, respectively. Patients that developed HRS/WF/WEUS had larger cyst size in first 5 years compared to those that did not [16 (12-23) vs. 12 (9-17) mm, p = 0.0001], cyst size of >15 mm having higher cumulative incidence of HRS/WF/WEUS. PC mortality was 0.8%; all-cause mortality was 32%. Incidence of mortality due to PC was higher in HRS/WF/WEUS group, p < 0.0001. The mortality rate at 12 years for ACCI (age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index) of ≤3, 4-6, and ≥7 were 3.5%, 19.9%, and 57.6% (p < 0.0001), respectively.

Conclusions: Incidence of PC in patients with BD-IPMN without significant changes in first 5 years of diagnosis remains low at 1.0%. Incidence of HRS/WF/WEUS was higher at 29.0%. PC-related mortality was higher in HRS/WF/WEUS group. These risks should be weighed against patients' overall mortality (utilizing scoring systems such as ACCI) when making surveillance decision of BD-IPMN beyond 5 years.