Accuracy of the Upper Limb Prediction Algorithm PREP2 Applied 2 Weeks Poststroke: A Prospective Longitudinal Study.

Background: The Predict Recovery Potential algorithm (PREP2) was developed to predict upper limb (UL) function early after stroke. However, assessment in the acute phase is not always possible.

Objective: To assess the prognostic accuracy of the PREP2 when applied in a subacute neurorehabilitation setting.

Methods: This prospective longitudinal study included patients ≥18 years old with UL impairment following stroke. Patients were assessed in accordance with the PREP2 approach. However, 2 main components, the shoulder abduction finger extension (SAFE) score and motor-evoked potentials (MEPs) were obtained 2 weeks poststroke. UL function at 3 months was predicted in 1 of 4 categories and compared with the actual outcome at 3 months as assessed by the Action Research Arm Test. The prediction accuracy of the PREP2 was quantified using the correct classification rate (CCR).

Results: Ninety-one patients were included. Overall CCR of the PREP2 was 60% (95% CI 50%-71%). Within the 4 categories, CCR ranged from the lowest value at 33% (95% CI 4%-85%) for the category Limited to the highest value at 78% (95% CI 43%-95%) for the category Poor. In the present study, the overall CCR was significantly lower ( < .001) than the 75% reported by the PREP2 developers.

Conclusions: The low overall CCR makes PREP2 obtained 2 weeks poststroke unsuited for clinical implementation. However, PREP2 may be used to predict either excellent UL function in already well-recovered patients or poor UL function in patients with persistent severe UL paresis.