Article Synopsis
- A new coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, identified in early January 2020, is responsible for Wuhan pneumonia and presents significant transmissibility concerns.
- Researchers developed a mathematical model focusing on the transmission network from bats to humans, then streamlined it to analyze transmission from a reservoir (such as a seafood market) to people.
- The study estimated that the basic reproduction number (R) is 2.30 from reservoir to people and 3.58 from person to person, indicating a significant potential for secondary infections, comparable in transmissibility to some other coronaviruses.
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Article Abstract
Background: As reported by the World Health Organization, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified as the causative virus of Wuhan pneumonia of unknown etiology by Chinese authorities on 7 January, 2020. The virus was named as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses on 11 February, 2020. This study aimed to develop a mathematical model for calculating the transmissibility of the virus.
Methods: In this study, we developed a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People transmission network model for simulating the potential transmission from the infection source (probably be bats) to the human infection. Since the Bats-Hosts-Reservoir network was hard to explore clearly and public concerns were focusing on the transmission from Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market (reservoir) to people, we simplified the model as Reservoir-People (RP) transmission network model. The next generation matrix approach was adopted to calculate the basic reproduction number (R) from the RP model to assess the transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2.
Results: The value of R was estimated of 2.30 from reservoir to person and 3.58 from person to person which means that the expected number of secondary infections that result from introducing a single infected individual into an otherwise susceptible population was 3.58.
Conclusions: Our model showed that the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 was higher than the Middle East respiratory syndrome in the Middle East countries, similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome, but lower than MERS in the Republic of Korea.
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| http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7047374 | PMC |
| http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s40249-020-00640-3 | DOI Listing |
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