The influence of environmental factors on breeding system allocation at large spatial scales.

Plant breeding systems can vary widely among populations, yet few studies have investigated abiotic factors contributing to variation across a broad geographic range. Here we investigate variation in reproductive traits of (Campanulaceae), a species that exhibits dimorphic cleistogamy, a condition in which individual plants have both closed (selfing: cleistogamous: CL) and open (selfing or outcrossing: chasmogamous: CH) flowers. Chasmogamous production is theorized to be more costly because CH flowers have a larger exposed surface area and thus are more likely to lose more water than CL flowers. We examine relationships between abiotic conditions (temperature, precipitation and soil characteristics) and variation in breeding systems across 14 widespread populations using ordinary least squares models. We found that a large proportion of breeding system variation was described by climate and soil variables ( = 0.65-0.92). These results support the hypothesis that variation in the environment drives variation in breeding system allocation. Our broad geographic analyses provide a framework for mechanistic studies of cleistogamy, and employ a novel approach for examining reproductive traits and environmental variation at large scales. Given that two major components of our models were temperature and precipitation, our study further emphasizes the potential for ongoing climate change to alter plant breeding systems.