Design- and model-based recommendations for detecting and quantifying an amphibian pathogen in environmental samples.

Accurate pathogen detection is essential for developing management strategies to address emerging infectious diseases, an increasingly prominent threat to wildlife. Sampling for free-living pathogens outside of their hosts has benefits for inference and study efficiency, but is still uncommon. We used a laboratory experiment to evaluate the influences of pathogen concentration, water type, and qPCR inhibitors on the detection and quantification of () using water filtration. We compared results pre- and post-inhibitor removal, and assessed inferential differences when single versus multiple samples were collected across space or time. We found that qPCR inhibition influenced both detection and quantification in natural water samples, resulting in biased inferences about occurrence and abundance. Biases in occurrence could be mitigated by collecting multiple samples in space or time, but biases in quantification were persistent. Differences in concentration resulted in variation in detection probability, indicating that occupancy modeling could be used to explore factors influencing heterogeneity in abundance among samples, sites, or over time. Our work will influence the design of studies involving amphibian disease dynamics and studies utilizing environmental DNA (eDNA) to understand species distributions.