A predictive microsimulation model to estimate the clinical relevance of reducing alcohol consumption in alcohol dependence.

Background: Alcohol consumption is one of the most important factors for disease and disability in Europe. In clinical trials, nalmefene has resulted in a significant reduction in the number of heavy-drinking days (HDDs) per month and total alcohol consumption (TAC) among alcohol-dependent patients versus placebo.

Methods: A microsimulation model was developed to estimate alcohol-attributable diseases and injuries in patients with alcohol dependence and to explore the clinical relevance of reducing alcohol consumption.

Results: For all diseases and injuries considered, the number of events (inpatient episodes) increased with the number of HDDs and TAC per year. The model predicted that a reduction of 20 HDDs per year would result in 941 fewer alcohol-attributable events per 100,000 patients, while a reduction in intake of 3,000 g/year of pure alcohol (ethanol) would result in 1,325 fewer events per 100,000 patients.

Conclusion: The potential gains of reducing consumption in alcohol-dependent patients were considerable.