"Liverscore" is predictive of both liver fibrosis and activity in chronic hepatitis C.

Aim: To formulate a noninvasive index predictive of severity of liver fibrosis and activity in chronic hepatitis C.

Methods: This cross sectional study was conducted on polymerase chain reaction positive, treatment naïve patients. Fibrosis was staged on a five point scale from F0-F4 and activity was graded on a four point scale from A0-A3, according to the METAVIR system. Patients were divided into two overall severity groups, minimal disease (< F2 and < A2) and significant disease (≥ F2 or ≥ A2). Eleven markers were measured in blood. Statistically, the primary outcome variable was identification of minimal and significant overall disease. Indices were formulated using β regression values of different combinations of nine statistically significant factors. Diagnostic performance of these indices was assessed through receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis.

Results: A total of 98 patients were included and of these 46 had an overall clinically significant disease. Our final six marker index, Liverscore for Hepatitis C, consisted of age, alanine transaminase, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase, apolipoprotein A-1, alpha-2 macroglobulin and hyaluronic acid. The area under the curve was found to be 0.813. On a 0-1 scale, negative predictive value at a cutoff level of ≤ 0.40 was 83%, while positive predictive value at ≥ 0.80 remained 89%. Altogether, 61% of the patients had these discriminative scores.

Conclusion: This index is discriminative of minimal and significant overall liver disease in a majority of chronic hepatitis C patients and can help in clinical decision making.