Testing-isolation interventions will likely be insufficient to contain future novel disease outbreaks.

Rapid identification and isolation of infected individuals with diagnostic testing plays a critical role in combating invasions of novel human pathogens. Unfortunately, unprepared health agencies may struggle to meet the massive testing capacity demands imposed by an outbreaking novel pathogen, potentially resulting in a failure of epidemic containment as occurred with COVID-19. Despite the critical importance of understanding the likelihood of such an outcome, it remains unclear how the particular characteristics of a novel disease will impact the magnitude of resource constraints on controllability.

Evidence for an Adaptive, Large-Scale Range Shift in a Long-Distance Terrestrial Migrant.

Long-distance migrations are a striking, and strikingly successful, adaptation for highly mobile terrestrial animals in seasonal environments. However, it remains an open question whether migratory animals are more resilient or less resilient to rapidly changing environments. Furthermore, the mechanisms by which animals adapt or modify their migrations are poorly understood.

Interactive Effects of Temperature, Aridity, and Plant Stoichiometry on Insect Herbivory: Past and Present.

AbstractThe influence of climate on deep-time plant-insect interactions is becoming increasingly well known, with temperature, CO increases (and associated stoichiometric changes in plants), and aridity likely playing a critical role. In our modern climate, all three factors are shifting at an unprecedented rate, with uncertain consequences for biodiversity. To investigate effects of temperature, stoichiometry (specifically that of nitrogen), and aridity on insect herbivory, we explored insect herbivory in three modern floral assemblages and in 39 fossil floras, especially focusing on eight floras around a past hyperthermal event (the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum) from Bighorn Basin (BB).

Intraspecific encounters can lead to reduced range overlap.

Direct encounters, in which two or more individuals are physically close to one another, are a topic of increasing interest as more and better movement data become available. Recent progress, including the development of statistical tools for estimating robust measures of changes in animals' space use over time, facilitates opportunities to link direct encounters between individuals with the long-term consequences of those encounters. Working with movement data for coyotes (Canis latrans) and grizzly bears (Ursus arctos horribilis), we investigate whether close intraspecific encounters were associated with spatial shifts in the animals' range distributions, as might be expected if one or both of the individuals involved in an encounter were seeking to reduce or avoid conflict over space.

Allee effects introduced by density dependent phenology.

We consider a hybrid model of an annual species with the timing of a stage transition governed by density dependent phenology. We show that the model can produce a strong Allee effect as well as overcompensation. The density dependent probability distribution that describes how population emergence is spread over time plays an important role in determining population dynamics.

Biogeographic response of marine plankton to Cenozoic environmental changes.

In palaeontological studies, groups with consistent ecological and morphological traits across a clade's history (functional groups) afford different perspectives on biodiversity dynamics than do species and genera, which are evolutionarily ephemeral. Here we analyse Triton, a global dataset of Cenozoic macroperforate planktonic foraminiferal occurrences, to contextualize changes in latitudinal equitability gradients, functional diversity, palaeolatitudinal specialization and community equitability. We identify: global morphological communities becoming less specialized preceding the richness increase after the Cretaceous-Palaeogene extinction; ecological specialization during the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum, suggesting inhibitive equatorial temperatures during the peak of the Cenozoic hothouse; increased specialization due to circulation changes across the Eocene-Oligocene transition, preceding the loss of morphological diversity; changes in morphological specialization and richness about 19 million years ago, coeval with pelagic shark extinctions; delayed onset of changing functional group richness and specialization between hemispheres during the mid-Miocene plankton diversification.

Complex nonmonotonic responses of biodiversity to habitat destruction.

It has typically been assumed that habitat destruction, characterized by habitat loss and fragmentation, has consistently negative effects on biodiversity. While numerous empirical studies have shown the detrimental effects of habitat loss, debate continues as to whether habitat fragmentation has universally negative effects. To explore the effects of habitat fragmentation, we developed a simple model for site-occupancy dynamics in fragmented landscapes.

Towards a mechanistic understanding of variation in aquatic food chain length.

Ecologists have long sought to understand variation in food chain length (FCL) among natural ecosystems. Various drivers of FCL, including ecosystem size, resource productivity and disturbance, have been hypothesised. However, when results are aggregated across existing empirical studies from aquatic ecosystems, we observe mixed FCL responses to these drivers.

Behavioral responses of terrestrial mammals to COVID-19 lockdowns.

COVID-19 lockdowns in early 2020 reduced human mobility, providing an opportunity to disentangle its effects on animals from those of landscape modifications. Using GPS data, we compared movements and road avoidance of 2300 terrestrial mammals (43 species) during the lockdowns to the same period in 2019. Individual responses were variable with no change in average movements or road avoidance behavior, likely due to variable lockdown conditions.

The relationship between controllability, optimal testing resource allocation, and incubation-latent period mismatch as revealed by COVID-19.

The severe shortfall in testing supplies during the initial COVID-19 outbreak and ensuing struggle to manage the pandemic have affirmed the critical importance of optimal supply-constrained resource allocation strategies for controlling novel disease epidemics. To address the challenge of constrained resource optimization for managing diseases with complications like pre- and asymptomatic transmission, we develop an integro partial differential equation compartmental disease model which incorporates realistic latent, incubation, and infectious period distributions along with limited testing supplies for identifying and quarantining infected individuals. Our model overcomes the limitations of typical ordinary differential equation compartmental models by decoupling symptom status from model compartments to allow a more realistic representation of symptom onset and presymptomatic transmission.

Incorporating multidimensional behavior into a risk management tool for a critically endangered and migratory species.

Conservation of migratory species exhibiting wide-ranging and multidimensional behaviors is challenged by management efforts that only utilize horizontal movements or produce static spatial-temporal products. For the deep-diving, critically endangered eastern Pacific leatherback turtle, tools that predict where turtles have high risks of fisheries interactions are urgently needed to prevent further population decline. We incorporated horizontal-vertical movement model results with spatial-temporal kernel density estimates and threat data (gear-specific fishing) to develop monthly maps of spatial risk.

Satellite Tracking of Head-Started Juvenile Green Turtles () Reveals Release Effects and an Ontogenetic Shift.

Juveniles of marine species, such as sea turtles, are often understudied in movement ecology. To determine dispersal patterns and release effects, we released 40 satellite-tagged juvenile head-started green turtles (, 1-4 years) from two separate locations (January and July 2023) off the coast of the Cayman Islands. A statistical model and vector plots were used to determine drivers of turtle directional swimming persistence and the role of ocean current direction.

Reinforced diffusions as models of memory-mediated animal movement.

How memory shapes animals' movement paths is a topic of growing interest in ecology, with connections to planning for conservation and climate change. Empirical studies suggest that memory has both temporal and spatial components, and can include both attractive and aversive elements. Here, we introduce reinforced diffusions (the continuous time counterpart of reinforced random walks) as a modelling framework for understanding the role that memory plays in determining animal movements.

Implicit versus explicit vector management strategies in models for vector-borne disease epidemiology.

Throughout the vector-borne disease modeling literature, there exist two general frameworks for incorporating vector management strategies (e.g. area-wide adulticide spraying and larval source reduction campaigns) into vector population models, namely, the "implicit" and "explicit" control frameworks.

Animal soundscapes reveal key markers of Amazon forest degradation from fire and logging.

Safeguarding tropical forest biodiversity requires solutions for monitoring ecosystem structure over time. In the Amazon, logging and fire reduce forest carbon stocks and alter habitat, but the long-term consequences for wildlife remain unclear, especially for lesser-known taxa. Here, we combined multiday acoustic surveys, airborne lidar, and satellite time series covering logged and burned forests (n = 39) in the southern Brazilian Amazon to identify acoustic markers of forest degradation.

Analyses of three-dimensional species associations reveal departures from neutrality in a tropical forest.

The study of community spatial structure is central to understanding diversity patterns over space and species co-occurrence at local scales. Although most analytical approaches consider horizontal and vertical dimensions separately, in this study we introduce a three-dimensional spatial analysis that simultaneously includes horizontal and vertical species associations. Using tree census data (2000-2016) and allometries from the Luquillo forest plot in Puerto Rico, we show that spatial organization becomes less random over time as the forest recovered from land-use legacy effects and hurricane disturbance.

A better index for analysis of co-occurrence and similarity.

Scientists often need to know whether pairs of entities tend to occur together or independently. Standard approaches to this issue use co-occurrence indices such as Jaccard, Sørensen-Dice, and Simpson. We show that these indices are sensitive to the prevalences of the entities they describe and that this invalidates their interpretability.

Higher-order effects, continuous species interactions, and trait evolution shape microbial spatial dynamics.

The assembly and maintenance of microbial diversity in natural communities, despite the abundance of toxin-based antagonistic interactions, presents major challenges for biological understanding. A common framework for investigating such antagonistic interactions involves cyclic dominance games with pairwise interactions. The incorporation of higher-order interactions in such models permits increased levels of microbial diversity, especially in communities in which antibiotic-producing, sensitive, and resistant strains coexist.

Inclement weather forces stopovers and prevents migratory progress for obligate soaring migrants.

Background: Migrating birds experience weather conditions that change with time, which affect their decision to stop or resume migration. Soaring migrants are especially sensitive to changing weather conditions because they rely on the availability of environmental updrafts to subsidize flight. The timescale that local weather conditions change over is on the order of hours, while stopovers are studied at the daily scale, creating a temporal mismatch.

Exploring the functional composition of the human microbiome using a hand-curated microbial trait database.

Background: Even when microbial communities vary wildly in their taxonomic composition, their functional composition is often surprisingly stable. This suggests that a functional perspective could provide much deeper insight into the principles governing microbiome assembly. Much work to date analyzing the functional composition of microbial communities, however, relies heavily on inference from genomic features.

Deciphering trophic interactions in a mid-Cambrian assemblage.

Exceptionally preserved fossil sites have allowed specimen-based identification of trophic interactions to which network analyses have been applied. However, network analyses of the fossil record suffer from incomplete and indirect data, time averaging that obscures species coexistence, and biases in preservation. Here, we present a high-resolution fossil data set from Raymond Quarry member of the mid-Cambrian Burgess Shale (7,549 specimens, 61 taxa, ∼510 Mya) and formulate a measure of "preservation bias" that aids identification of assemblage subsets to which network analyses can be reliably applied.