Human contributions to global soundscapes are less predictable than the acoustic rhythms of wildlife.

Across the world, human (anthropophonic) sounds add to sounds of biological (biophonic) and geophysical (geophonic) origin, with human contributions including both speech and technophony (sounds of technological devices). To characterize society's contribution to the global soundscapes, we used passive acoustic recorders at 139 sites across 6 continents, sampling both urban green spaces and nearby pristine sites continuously for 3 years in a paired design. Recordings were characterized by bird species richness and by 14 complementary acoustic indices.

Taylor's law predicts unprecedented pulses of forest disturbance under global change.

Climate extremes are causing increasingly large pulses of forest disturbance across biomes, raising concerns that forests are pushed beyond their safe operating space. However, predicting future disturbance pulses remains a major challenge, as these events are stochastic and driven by complex ecological and socio-economic processes. Here, we provide a tractable solution to this problem using Taylor's law, which predicts changes in variability (and thus the frequency of extremes) from changes in the mean.

The increasing role of drought as an inciting factor of bark beetle outbreaks can cause large-scale transformation of Central European forests.

Context: Historically, large-scale outbreaks of the European spruce bark beetle were initiated mainly by windthrows. However, after 2018, a severe drought triggered the hitherto largest bark beetle outbreak observed in Europe, signalling a major shift in the disturbance regime.

Objectives: Develop and test an approach that allows simulating this novel disturbance dynamics and evaluate landscape-scale compound impacts of wind- and drought-initiated outbreaks throughout the twenty-first century.

Microclimate temperature effects propagate across scales in forest ecosystems.

Context: Forest canopies shape subcanopy environments, affecting biodiversity and ecosystem processes. Empirical forest microclimate studies are often restricted to local scales and short-term effects, but forest dynamics unfold at landscape scales and over long time periods.

Objectives: We developed the first explicit and dynamic implementation of microclimate temperature buffering in a forest landscape model and investigated effects on simulated forest dynamics and outcomes.

Effects of climate and forest development on habitat specialization and biodiversity in Central European mountain forests.

Mountain forests are biodiversity hotspots with competing hypotheses proposed to explain elevational trends in habitat specialization and species richness. The altitudinal-niche-breadth hypothesis suggests decreasing specialization with elevation, which could lead to decreasing species richness and weaker differences in species richness and beta diversity among habitat types with increasing elevation. Testing these predictions for bacteria, fungi, plants, arthropods, and vertebrates, we found decreasing habitat specialization (represented by forest developmental stages) with elevation in mountain forests of the Northern Alps - supporting the altitudinal-niche-breadth hypothesis.

Patterns of early post-disturbance reorganization in Central European forests.

Disturbances catalyse change in forest ecosystems, and a climate-driven increase in disturbance activity could accelerate forest reorganization. Here, we studied post-disturbance forests after the biggest pulse of tree mortality in Central Europe in at least 170 years, caused by drought and bark beetle (Scolytinae) outbreaks in 2018-2020. Our objectives were to characterize the early state of tree regeneration after mortality, quantify patterns of reorganization relative to undisturbed reference conditions and assess how management and patch size affect forest reorganization after disturbance.

Parameters of 150 temperate and boreal tree species and provenances for an individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model.

Understanding the impacts of changing climate and disturbance regimes on forest ecosystems is greatly aided by the use of process-based models. Such models simulate processes based on first principles of ecology, which requires parameterization. Parameterization is an important step in model development and application, defining the characteristics of trees and their responses to the environment, i.

Beyond resilience: Responses to changing climate and disturbance regimes in temperate forest landscapes across the Northern Hemisphere.

Climate change has profound impacts on forest ecosystem dynamics and could lead to the emergence of novel ecosystems via changes in species composition, forest structure, and potentially a complete loss of tree cover. Disturbances fundamentally shape those dynamics: the prevailing disturbance regime of a region determines the inherent variability of a system, and its climate-mediated change could accelerate forest transformation. We used the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model iLand to investigate the resilience of three protected temperate forest landscapes on three continents-selected to represent a gradient from low to high disturbance activity-to changing climate and disturbance regimes.

Mapping the natural disturbance risk to protective forests across the European Alps.

Mountain forests play an essential role in protecting people and infrastructure from natural hazards. However, forests are currently experiencing an increasing rate of natural disturbances (including windthrows, bark beetle outbreaks and forest fires) that may jeopardize their capacity to provide this ecosystem service in the future. Here, we mapped the risk to forests' protective service across the European Alps by integrating the risk components of hazard (in this case, the probability of a disturbance occurring), exposure (the proportion of forests that protect people or infrastructure), and vulnerability (the probability that the forests lose their protective structure after a disturbance).

Changes in planned and unplanned canopy openings are linked in Europe's forests.

Canopy openings are increasing in Europe's forests, yet the contributions of anthropogenic and ecological agents of disturbance to this increase remain debated. Here we attribute the root cause of all stand-replacing canopy disturbances identified for Europe in the period 1986-2020 from Landsat data (417,000 km²), distinguishing between planned and unplanned canopy openings (i.e.

A climate-induced tree species bottleneck for forest management in Europe.

Large pulses of tree mortality have ushered in a major reorganization of Europe's forest ecosystems. To initiate a robust next generation of trees, the species that are planted today need to be climatically suitable throughout the entire twenty-first century. Here we developed species distribution models for 69 European tree species based on occurrence data from 238,080 plot locations to investigate the option space for current forest management in Europe.

A harmonized database of European forest simulations under climate change.

Process-based forest models combine biological, physical, and chemical process understanding to simulate forest dynamics as an emergent property of the system. As such, they are valuable tools to investigate the effects of climate change on forest ecosystems. Specifically, they allow testing of hypotheses regarding long-term ecosystem dynamics and provide means to assess the impacts of climate scenarios on future forest development.

Resilience and vulnerability: distinct concepts to address global change in forests.

Resilience and vulnerability are important concepts to understand, anticipate, and manage global change impacts on forest ecosystems. However, they are often used confusingly and inconsistently, hampering a synthetic understanding of global change, and impeding communication with managers and policy-makers. Both concepts are powerful and have complementary strengths, reflecting their different history, methodological approach, components, and spatiotemporal focus.

Ecosystem services at risk from disturbance in Europe's forests.

Global change impacts on disturbances can strongly compromise the capacity of forests to provide ecosystem services to society. In addition, many ecosystem services in Europe are simultaneously provided by forests, emphasizing the importance of multifunctionality in forest ecosystem assessments. To address disturbances in forest ecosystem policies and management, spatially explicit risk analyses that consider multiple disturbances and ecosystem services are needed.

Projected climate and canopy change lead to thermophilization and homogenization of forest floor vegetation in a hotspot of plant species richness.

Mountain forests are plant diversity hotspots, but changing climate and increasing forest disturbances will likely lead to far-reaching plant community change. Projecting future change, however, is challenging for forest understory plants, which respond to forest structure and composition as well as climate. Here, we jointly assessed the effects of both climate and forest change, including wind and bark beetle disturbances, using the process-based simulation model iLand in a protected landscape in the northern Alps (Berchtesgaden National Park, Germany), asking: (1) How do understory plant communities respond to 21st-century change in a topographically complex mountain landscape, representing a hotspot of plant species richness? (2) How important are climatic changes (i.

Regeneration in European beech forests after drought: the effects of microclimate, deadwood and browsing.

Unlabelled: With progressing climate change, increasing weather extremes will endanger tree regeneration. Canopy openings provide light for tree establishment, but also reduce the microclimatic buffering effect of forests. Thus, disturbances can have both positive and negative impacts on tree regeneration.

A balancing act: Principles, criteria and indicator framework to operationalize social-ecological resilience of forests.

Against a background of intensifying climate-induced disturbances, the need to enhance the resilience of forests and forest management is gaining urgency. In forest management, multiple trade-offs exist between different demands as well as across and within temporal and spatial scales. However, methods to assess resilience that consider these trade-offs are presently lacking.

The evolution, complexity and diversity of models of long-term forest dynamics.

To assess the impacts of climate change on vegetation from stand to global scales, models of forest dynamics that include tree demography are needed. Such models are now available for 50 years, but the currently existing diversity of model formulations and its evolution over time are poorly documented. This hampers systematic assessments of structural uncertainties in model-based studies.

Increasing aridity causes larger and more severe forest fires across Europe.

Area burned has decreased across Europe in recent decades. This trend may, however, reverse under ongoing climate change, particularly in areas not limited by fuel availability (i.e.

Significant increase in natural disturbance impacts on European forests since 1950.

Over the last decades, the natural disturbance is increasingly putting pressure on European forests. Shifts in disturbance regimes may compromise forest functioning and the continuous provisioning of ecosystem services to society, including their climate change mitigation potential. Although forests are central to many European policies, we lack the long-term empirical data needed for thoroughly understanding disturbance dynamics, modeling them, and developing adaptive management strategies.

A climate risk analysis of Earth's forests in the 21st century.

Earth's forests harbor extensive biodiversity and are currently a major carbon sink. Forest conservation and restoration can help mitigate climate change; however, climate change could fundamentally imperil forests in many regions and undermine their ability to provide such mitigation. The extent of climate risks facing forests has not been synthesized globally nor have different approaches to quantifying forest climate risks been systematically compared.

Post-disturbance reorganization of forest ecosystems in a changing world.

Forest ecosystems are strongly impacted by continuing climate change and increasing disturbance activity, but how forest dynamics will respond remains highly uncertain. Here, we argue that a short time window after disturbance (i.e.