A useful parametric specification to model epidemiological data: Revival of the Richards' curve.

A useful parametric specification for the expected value of an epidemiological process is revived, and its statistical and empirical efficacy are explored. The Richards' curve is flexible enough to adapt to several growth phenomena, including recent epidemics and outbreaks. Here, two different estimation methods are described.

Finite mixtures in capture-recapture surveys for modeling residency patterns in marine wildlife populations.

This work aims to show how prior knowledge about the structure of a heterogeneous animal population can be leveraged to improve the abundance estimation from capture-recapture survey data. We combine the Open Jolly-Seber model with finite mixtures and propose a parsimonious specification tailored to the residency patterns of the common bottlenose dolphin. We employ a Bayesian framework for our inference, discussing the appropriate choice of priors to mitigate label-switching and nonidentifiability issues, commonly associated with finite mixture models.

BAYESIAN HIERARCHICAL MODELING AND ANALYSIS FOR ACTIGRAPH DATA FROM WEARABLE DEVICES.

The majority of Americans fail to achieve recommended levels of physical activity, which leads to numerous preventable health problems such as diabetes, hypertension, and heart diseases. This has generated substantial interest in monitoring human activity to gear interventions toward environmental features that may relate to higher physical activity. Wearable devices, such as wrist-worn sensors that monitor gross motor activity (actigraph units) continuously record the activity levels of a subject, producing massive amounts of high-resolution measurements.

Virtual and Reality: A Neurophysiological Pilot Study of the Sarcophagus of the Spouses.

Art experience is not solely the observation of artistic objects, but great relevance is also placed on the environment in which the art experience takes place, often in museums and galleries. Interestingly, in the last few years, the introduction of some forms of virtual reality (VR) in museum contexts has been increasing. This has solicited enormous research interest in investigating any eventual differences between looking at the same artifact either in a real context (e.

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations.

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022.

Two years of COVID-19 pandemic: The Italian experience of Statgroup-19.

The amount and poor quality of available data and the need of appropriate modeling of the main epidemic indicators require specific skills. In this context, the statistician plays a key role in the process that leads to policy decisions, starting with monitoring changes and evaluating risks. The "what" and the "why" of these changes represent fundamental research questions to provide timely and effective tools to manage the evolution of the epidemic.

Spatio-temporal modelling of COVID-19 incident cases using Richards' curve: An application to the Italian regions.

We introduce an extended generalised logistic growth model for discrete outcomes, in which spatial and temporal dependence are dealt with the specification of a network structure within an Auto-Regressive approach. A major challenge concerns the specification of the network structure, crucial to consistently estimate the canonical parameters of the generalised logistic curve, e.g.

Nowcasting COVID-19 incidence indicators during the Italian first outbreak.

A novel parametric regression model is proposed to fit incidence data typically collected during epidemics. The proposal is motivated by real-time monitoring and short-term forecasting of the main epidemiological indicators within the first outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy. Accurate short-term predictions, including the potential effect of exogenous or external variables are provided.

Capitoline Dolphins: Residency Patterns and Abundance Estimate of at the Tiber River Estuary (Mediterranean Sea).

Periodic assessments of population status and trends to detect natural influences and human effects on coastal dolphin are often limited by lack of baseline information. Here, we investigated for the first time the site-fidelity patterns and estimated the population size of bottlenose dolphins () at the Tiber River estuary (central Mediterranean, Tyrrhenian Sea, Rome, Italy) between 2017 and 2020. We used photo-identification data and site-fidelity metrics to study the tendency of dolphins to remain in, or return to, the study area, and capture-recapture models to estimate the population abundance.

I stay at home with headache. A survey to investigate how the lockdown for COVID-19 impacted on headache in Italian children.

Objective: The present Italian multicenter study aimed at investigating whether the course of primary headache disorders in children and adolescents was changed during the lockdown necessary to contain the COVID-19 emergency in Italy.

Methods: During the lockdown, we submitted an online questionnaire to patients already diagnosed with primary headache disorders. Questions explored the course of headache, daily habits, psychological factors related to COVID-19, general mood and school stress.

Tolerability of Palmitoylethanolamide in a Pediatric Population Suffering from Migraine: A Pilot Study.

Background: Palmitoylethanolamide (PEA) is emerging as a new therapeutic approach in pain and inflammatory conditions, and it has been evaluated in studies on various painful diseases. The aim of this open-label study was to evaluate the efficacy of ultramicronized PEA (umPEA) in the prophylactic treatment of migraine.

Methods: The study included 70 patients with mean age of 10.

Features of Primary Chronic Headache in Children and Adolescents and Validity of Ichd 3 Criteria.

Chronic headaches are not a rare condition in children and adolescents with negative effects on their quality of life. Our aims were to investigate the clinical features of chronic headache and usefulness of the International Classification of Headache Disorders 3rd edition (ICHD 3) criteria for the diagnosis in a cohort of pediatric patients. We retrospectively reviewed the charts of patients attending the Headache Center of Bambino Gesù Children and Insubria University Hospital during the 2010-2016 time interval.