Publications by authors named "Peter D F Isles"

The interplay between abiotic (resource supply, temperature) and biotic (grazing) factors determines growth and loss processes in phytoplankton through resource competition and trophic interactions, which are mediated by morphological traits like size. Here, we study the relative importance of grazers, water physics, and chemistry on the daily net accumulation rates (ARs) of individual phytoplankton from natural communities, grouped into six size classes from circa 10 to 500 μm. Using a Random Forest modelling approach and 4 years of daily data from a lake, we find that water temperature is generally a pivotal control of all phytoplankton ARs.

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Global change may introduce fundamental alterations in phytoplankton biomass and community structure that can alter the productivity of northern lakes. In this study, we utilized Swedish and Finnish monitoring data from lakes that are spatially (135 lakes) and temporally (1995-2019, 110 lakes) extensive to assess how phytoplankton biomass (PB) of dominant phytoplankton groups related to changes in water temperature, pH and key nutrients [total phosphorus (TP), total nitrogen (TN), total organic carbon (TOC), iron (Fe)] along spatial (Fennoscandia) and temporal (25 years) gradients. Using a machine learning approach, we found that TP was the most important determinant of total PB and biomass of a specific species of Raphidophyceae - Gonyostomum semen - and Cyanobacteria (both typically with adverse impacts on food-webs and water quality) in spatial analyses, while Fe and pH were second in importance for G.

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Zooplankton community composition of northern lakes is changing due to the interactive effects of climate change and recovery from acidification, yet limited data are available to assess these changes combined. Here, we built a database using archives of temperature, water chemistry and zooplankton data from 60 Scandinavian lakes that represent broad spatial and temporal gradients in key parameters: temperature, calcium (Ca), total phosphorus (TP), total organic carbon (TOC), and pH. Using machine learning techniques, we found that Ca was the most important determinant of the relative abundance of all zooplankton groups studied, while pH was second, and TOC third in importance.

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Article Synopsis
  • Estimation of nutrient loads in freshwater resources is essential for effective management, utilizing discharge-concentration relationships formed from water quality samples.
  • A new model based on random forests was developed to estimate concentrations and loads of key nutrients in 17 tributaries to Lake Champlain over nearly 30 years, showing better performance compared to the widely used WRTDS model.
  • This random forest model not only improved accuracy through innovative predictors but also offered valuable visualization tools for understanding processes, presenting a flexible and user-friendly option for nutrient load estimation.
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Article Synopsis
  • Climate change disrupts ecological networks, threatening biodiversity through altered interactions, with unknown effects on how ecosystems respond to warming and nutrient fluctuations.
  • Research conducted on plankton communities in ten Swiss lakes reveals that interactions among plankton vary with temperature and phosphorus, generally decreasing with warming, especially at high phosphate levels.
  • This change in interactions reconfigures food webs, shifting control from consumers to resources, with small grazers and cyanobacteria acting as key indicators of shifting network dynamics influenced by environmental changes.
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Global environmental changes are causing widespread nutrient depletion, declines in the ratio of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (N) to total phosphorus (DIN:TP), and increases in both water temperature and terrestrial colored dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration (browning) in high-latitude northern lakes. Declining lake DIN:TP, warming, and browning alter the nutrient limitation regime and biomass of phytoplankton, but how these stressors together affect the nutritional quality in terms of polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) contents of the pelagic food web components remains unknown. We assessed the fatty acid compositions of seston and zooplankton in 33 lakes across south-to-north and boreal-to-subarctic gradients in Sweden.

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Article Synopsis
  • Climate change has altered the thermal structure of lakes, impacting both surface and deep water temperatures, though surface changes are more documented than deepwater trends.
  • This study presents a comprehensive dataset of vertical temperature profiles from 153 lakes, starting from as early as 1894, allowing for a deeper analysis of long-term trends.
  • The researchers also collected various geographic and water quality data to understand how different factors influence the thermal structures of these lakes amid ongoing environmental changes.
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Winter conditions, such as ice cover and snow accumulation, are changing rapidly at northern latitudes and can have important implications for lake processes. For example, snowmelt in the watershed-a defining feature of lake hydrology because it delivers a large portion of annual nutrient inputs-is becoming earlier. Consequently, earlier and a shorter duration of snowmelt are expected to affect annual phytoplankton biomass.

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Article Synopsis
  • Global lake surface water temperatures have warmed at an average rate of +0.37 °C per decade, while deepwater temperatures have shown minimal average change (+0.06 °C per decade), but with high variability among individual lakes.
  • The study analyzed long-term vertical temperature data from 1970-2009 to uncover trends and influences on lake thermal structures.
  • The variability in deepwater temperature trends is not fully explained by surface temperatures or internal lake factors, suggesting that broader climate patterns or human activities play a significant role in these long-term changes.
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Ecological stoichiometry is concerned with the ratios of different elements, particularly carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus. Ratios by their nature do not respond symmetrically to changes in the numerator and denominator and do not follow normal distributions; however, researchers frequently fail to consider these properties in their analyses, which has biased reported results. Calculating means, variance, or linear slopes based on untransformed ratios results in biased results.

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Decreasing duration and occurrence of northern hemisphere ice cover due to recent climate warming is well-documented; however, biogeochemical dynamics underneath the ice are poorly understood. We couple time-series analyses of water column and sediment water interface (SWI) geochemistry with hydrodynamic data to develop a holistic model of iron (Fe), manganese (Mn), and phosphorus (P) behavior underneath the ice of a shallow eutrophic freshwater bay. During periods of persistent subfreezing temperatures, a highly reactive pool of dissolved and colloidal Fe, Mn, and P develops over time in surface sediments and bottom waters due to reductive dissolution of Fe/Mn(oxy)hydroxides below the SWI.

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Lake sediments are known to be a significant source of phosphorus (P) to plankton populations under certain biogeochemical conditions; however, the contribution of sediment organic P (P) to internal P loads remains poorly understood. We investigated P speciation and bioavailability in sediments collected over multiple months from a shallow, eutrophic bay in Lake Champlain (Missisquoi Bay, VT) using solution P nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy and enzymatic hydrolysis (EH) analysis of sediments collected during years with (2008) and without (2007) algal blooms. Sediments collected during bloom onset (July) and peak bloom (August) months contained the largest proportion of enzyme-labile P, whereas pre- and postbloom sediments were primarily composed of nonlabile P.

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