Comparison of visual assessment and quantitative goodness-of-fit metrics on GUTS model fits.

For the application of toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TKTD) models in the European environmental risk assessment (ERA) of plant protection products, it is recommended to evaluate model predictions of the calibration as well as the independent validation data set based on qualitative criteria (visual assessment) and quantitative goodness-of-fit (GoF) metrics. The aims of this study were to identify whether quantitative criteria coincide with human visual perception of model performance and which evaluator characteristics influence their perception. In an anonymous online survey, > 70 calibration and validation general unified threshold models of survival (GUTS) fits were ranked by 64 volunteers with a professional interest in ecotoxicology and TKTD modeling.

A Toxicokinetic-Toxicodynamic Modeling Workflow Assessing the Quality of Input Mortality Data.

Toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TKTD) models simulate organismal uptake and elimination of a substance (TK) and its effects on the organism (TD). The Reduced General Unified Threshold model of Survival (GUTS-RED) is a TKTD modeling framework that is well established for aquatic risk assessment to simulate effects on survival. The TKTD models are applied in three steps: parameterization based on experimental data (calibration), comparing predictions with independent data (validation), and prediction of endpoints under environmental scenarios.

Efficacy of native cyclopoid copepods in biological vector control with regard to their predatory behavior against the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus.

Background: The control of the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) is crucial owing to its high vector competence for more than 20 arboviruses-the most important being dengue, chikungunya and Zika virus. Aedes albopictus has an enormous adaptive potential, and its invasive spreading across urban and suburban environments poses challenges for its control. Therefore, all suitable, cost-effective and eco-friendly control tools should be put into practice.

The Minimum Detectable Difference (MDD) Concept for Establishing Trust in Nonsignificant Results: A Critical Review.

Current regulatory guidelines for pesticide risk assessment recommend that nonsignificant results should be complemented by the minimum detectable difference (MDD), a statistical indicator that is used to decide whether the experiment could have detected biologically relevant effects. We review the statistical theory of the MDD and perform simulations to understand its properties and error rates. Most importantly, we compare the skill of the MDD in distinguishing between true and false negatives (i.

Climate change alters elevational phenology patterns of the European spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus).

The European spruce bark beetle Ips typographus is the most important insect pest in Central European forests. Under climate change, its phenology is presumed to be changing and mass infestations becoming more likely. While several studies have investigated climate effects across a latitudinal gradient, it remains an open question how phenology will change depending on elevation and topology.