Computationally designed proteins mimic antibody immune evasion in viral evolution.

Recurrent waves of viral infection necessitate vaccines and therapeutics that remain effective against emerging viruses. Our ability to evaluate interventions is currently limited to assessments against past or circulating variants, which likely differ in their immune escape potential compared with future variants. To address this, we developed EVE-Vax, a computational method for designing antigens that foreshadow immune escape observed in future viral variants.

Learning from prepandemic data to forecast viral escape.

Effective pandemic preparedness relies on anticipating viral mutations that are able to evade host immune responses to facilitate vaccine and therapeutic design. However, current strategies for viral evolution prediction are not available early in a pandemic-experimental approaches require host polyclonal antibodies to test against, and existing computational methods draw heavily from current strain prevalence to make reliable predictions of variants of concern. To address this, we developed EVEscape, a generalizable modular framework that combines fitness predictions from a deep learning model of historical sequences with biophysical and structural information.

Evolution of Amino Acid Propensities under Stability-Mediated Epistasis.

Site-specific amino acid preferences are influenced by the genetic background of the protein. The preferences for resident amino acids are expected to, on average, increase over time because of replacements at other sites-a nonadaptive phenomenon referred to as the "evolutionary Stokes shift." Alternatively, decreases in resident amino acid propensity have recently been viewed as evidence of adaptations to external environmental changes.

Shifts in amino acid preferences as proteins evolve: A synthesis of experimental and theoretical work.

Amino acid preferences vary across sites and time. While variation across sites is widely accepted, the extent and frequency of temporal shifts are contentious. Our understanding of the drivers of amino acid preference change is incomplete: To what extent are temporal shifts driven by adaptive versus nonadaptive evolutionary processes? We review phenomena that cause preferences to vary (e.

Consequences of Stability-Induced Epistasis for Substitution Rates.

Do interactions between residues in a protein (i.e., epistasis) significantly alter evolutionary dynamics? If so, what consequences might they have on inference from traditional codon substitution models which assume site-independence for the sake of computational tractability? To investigate the effects of epistasis on substitution rates, we employed a mechanistic mutation-selection model in conjunction with a fitness framework derived from protein stability.

A Phenotype-Genotype Codon Model for Detecting Adaptive Evolution.

A central objective in biology is to link adaptive evolution in a gene to structural and/or functional phenotypic novelties. Yet most analytic methods make inferences mainly from either phenotypic data or genetic data alone. A small number of models have been developed to infer correlations between the rate of molecular evolution and changes in a discrete or continuous life history trait.

Introduction to Genome Biology and Diversity.

Organisms display astonishing levels of cell and molecular diversity, including genome size, shape, and architecture. In this chapter, we review how the genome can be viewed as both a structural and an informational unit of biological diversity and explicitly define our intended meaning of genetic information. A brief overview of the characteristic features of bacterial, archaeal, and eukaryotic cell types and viruses sets the stage for a review of the differences in organization, size, and packaging strategies of their genomes.

Phenomenological Load on Model Parameters Can Lead to False Biological Conclusions.

When a substitution model is fitted to an alignment using maximum likelihood, its parameters are adjusted to account for as much site-pattern variation as possible. A parameter might therefore absorb a substantial quantity of the total variance in an alignment (or more formally, bring about a substantial reduction in the deviance of the fitted model) even if the process it represents played no role in the generation of the data. When this occurs, we say that the parameter estimate carries phenomenological load (PL).

Shifting Balance on a Static Mutation-Selection Landscape: A Novel Scenario of Positive Selection.

A version of the mechanistic mutation-selection (MutSel) model that accounts for temporal dynamics at a site is presented. This is used to show that the rate ratio dN/dS at a site can be transiently >1 even when fitness coefficients are fixed or the fitness landscape is static. This occurs whenever a site drifts away from its fitness peak and is then forced back by selection, a process reminiscent of shifting balance.