Distinguishing threshold shoulder range of motion measures collected by a breast cancer smartphone application: Assessment in healthy adults.

Shoulder range of motion (ROM) limitations following breast cancer treatments are common. Remotely monitoring ROM changes after treatments through smartphone applications can expand rehabilitation options for breast cancer patients. The aim of the study was to investigate the ability of ShApp-a breast cancer smartphone application-to distinguish between different clinically useful shoulder ROM target levels, as well as the consistency of ROM measurements recorded by ShApp.

Contagious acquisition of antimicrobial resistance is critical for explaining emergence in western Canadian feedlots-insights from an agent-based modelling tool.

Introduction: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a growing threat to the efficacy of antimicrobials in humans and animals, including those used to control bovine respiratory disease (BRD) in high-risk calves entering western Canadian feedlots. Successful mitigation strategies require an improved understanding of the epidemiology of AMR. Specifically, the relative contributions of antimicrobial use (AMU) and contagious transmission to AMR emergence in animal populations are unknown.

Early COVID-19 Pandemic Preparedness: Informing Public Health Interventions and Hospital Capacity Planning Through Participatory Hybrid Simulation Modeling.

We engaged with health sector stakeholders and public health professionals within the health system through a participatory modeling approach to support policy-making in the early COVID-19 pandemic in Saskatchewan, Canada. The objective was to use simulation modeling to guide the implementation of public health measures and short-term hospital capacity planning to mitigate the disease burden from March to June 2020. We developed a hybrid simulation model combining System Dynamics (SD), discrete-event simulation (DES), and agent-based modeling (ABM).

A Dynamic Model of Opioid Overdose Deaths in Canada during the Co-Occurring Opioid Overdose Crisis and COVID-19 Pandemic.

With over 40,000 opioid-related overdose deaths between January 2016 and June 2023, the opioid-overdose crisis is a significant public health concern for Canada. The opioid crisis arose from a complex system involving prescription opioid use, the use of prescription opioids not as prescribed, and non-medical opioid use. The increasing presence of fentanyl and its analogues in the illegal drugs supply has been an important driver of the crisis.

Comparing Contact Tracing Through Bluetooth and GPS Surveillance Data: Simulation-Driven Approach.

Background: Accurate and responsive epidemiological simulations of epidemic outbreaks inform decision-making to mitigate the impact of pandemics. These simulations must be grounded in quantities derived from measurements, among which the parameters associated with contacts between individuals are notoriously difficult to estimate. Digital contact tracing data, such as those provided by Bluetooth beaconing or GPS colocating, can provide more precise measures of contact than traditional methods based on direct observation or self-reporting.

Real-Time Epidemiology and Acute Care Need Monitoring and Forecasting for COVID-19 via Bayesian Sequential Monte Carlo-Leveraged Transmission Models.

COVID-19 transmission models have conferred great value in informing public health understanding, planning, and response. However, the pandemic also demonstrated the infeasibility of basing public health decision-making on transmission models with pre-set assumptions. No matter how favourably evidenced when built, a model with fixed assumptions is challenged by numerous factors that are difficult to predict.

Qualitative Interviews to Add Patient Perspectives in Colorectal Cancer Screening: Improvements in a Learning Health System.

Health systems are interested in increasing colorectal cancer (CRC) screening rates as CRC is a leading cause of preventable cancer death. Learning health systems are ones that use data to continually improve care. Data can and should include qualitative local perspectives to improve patient and provider education and care.

Opioid-related harms and care impacts of conventional and AI-based prescription management strategies: insights from leveraging agent-based modeling and machine learning.

Introduction: Like its counterpart to the south, Canada ranks among the top five countries with the highest rates of opioid prescriptions. With many suffering from opioid use disorder first having encountered opioids prescription routes, practitioners and health systems have an enduring need to identify and effectively respond to the problematic use of opioid prescription. There are strong challenges to successfully addressing this need: importantly, the patterns of prescription fulfillment that signal opioid abuse can be subtle and difficult to recognize, and overzealous enforcement can deprive those with legitimate pain management needs the appropriate care.

The impact of alternate level of care on access block and operational strategies to reduce emergency wait times: a multi-center simulation study.

Objectives: Lengthy emergency department (ED) wait times caused by hospital access block is a growing concern for the Canadian health care system. Our objective was to quantify the impact of alternate-level-of-care on hospital access block and evaluate the likely effects of multiple interventions on ED wait times.

Methods: Discrete-event simulation models were developed to simulate patient flows in EDs and acute care of six Canadian hospitals.

The Contribution of Gestational Diabetes to Diabetes Risk Among First Nations and Non-First Nations Women in Saskatchewan: Results From the DIP: ORRIIGENSS Project.

Objectives: Our aim in this study was to determine the risk for diabetes mellitus (DM) among Saskatchewan First Nations (FN) and non-FN women with prior gestational DM (GDM).

Methods: Using Ministry of Health administrative databases, we conducted a retrospective cohort study of DM risk by GDM occurrence among FN and non-FN women giving birth from 1980 to 2009 and followed to March 31, 2013. We determined frequencies and odds ratios (ORs) of DM in women with/without prior GDM after stratifying by FN status, while adjusting for other DM determinants.

Impacts of observation frequency on proximity contact data and modeled transmission dynamics.

Transmission of many communicable diseases depends on proximity contacts among humans. Modeling the dynamics of proximity contacts can help determine whether an outbreak is likely to trigger an epidemic. While the advent of commodity mobile devices has eased the collection of proximity contact data, battery capacity and associated costs impose tradeoffs between the observation frequency and scanning duration used for contact detection.

Evaluation of the effectiveness of maternal immunization against pertussis in Alberta using agent-based modeling: A Canadian immunization research network study.

Introduction: The re-emergence of pertussis has occurred in the past two decades in developed countries. The highest morbidity and mortality is seen among infants. Vaccination in pregnancy is recommended to reduce the pertussis burden in infants.

Rural vs urban inequalities in stage at diagnosis for lung cancer.

Objectives: Early diagnosis of lung cancer increases the chance of survival. The aim of this study was to measure the relationship between geographic residence in Saskatchewan and stage of lung cancer at the time of diagnosis.

Materials And Methods: Retrospective cohort analysis of 2,972 patients with a primary diagnosis of either non-small cell cancer (NSCLC) or small cell lung cancer (SCLC) between 2007 and 2012 was performed.

Tobacco messages encountered in real-time among low socio-economic position groups: a descriptive study.

Background: Tobacco advertising disproportionately targets low socio-economic position (SEP) groups, causing higher rates of tobacco use in this population. Anti-tobacco public health education campaigns persuade against use. This study measured real-time exposure of pro- and anti-tobacco messages from low SEP groups in two American cities.

A dynamic modelling analysis of the impact of tobacco control programs on population-level nicotine dependence.

According to the 'hardening hypothesis', average nicotine dependence will increase as less dependent smokers quit relatively easily in response to effective public health interventions, so that sustained progress in reducing smoking prevalence will depend on shifting the emphasis of tobacco control programs towards intensive treatment of heavily dependent smokers (who comprise an increasing fraction of continuing smokers). We used a system dynamics model of smoking behaviour to explore the potential for hardening in a population of smokers exposed to effective tobacco control measures over an extended period. Policy-induced increases in the per capita cessation rate are shown to lead inevitably to a decline in the proportion of smokers who are heavily dependent, contrary to the hardening hypothesis.

What We Know Now: An Economic Evaluation of Chickenpox Vaccination and Dose Timing Using an Agent-Based Model.

Objectives: The value of chickenpox vaccination is still debated in the literature and by jurisdictions worldwide. This uncertainty is reflected in the inconsistent uptake of the vaccine, where some countries offer routine childhood immunization programs, others have targeted programs, and in many the vaccine is only privately available. Even across the countries that have universal funding for the vaccine, there is a diversity of schedules and dosing intervals.

Congenital Anomalies of the Kidney and Urinary Tract (CAKUT): An Emerging Relationship With Pregestational Diabetes Mellitus Among First Nations and Non-First Nations People in Saskatchewan-Results From the DIP: ORRIIGENSS Project.

Objectives: Because congenital anomalies of the kidneys and urinary tract (CAKUT) represent a frequent cause of end stage renal disease (ESRD) in the young, we explored the epidemiology of CAKUT and the role of diabetes in pregnancy.

Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study of CAKUT, by maternal diabetes status, from among all 1980‒2009 births in Saskatchewan First Nations (FN) and non-First Nations (non-FN) people. We determined frequencies, predictors and complications of CAKUT, as well as cumulative survival (to 2014) of affected persons until ESRD and death.

'Turning the tide' on hyperglycemia in pregnancy: insights from multiscale dynamic simulation modeling.

Introduction: Hyperglycemia in pregnancy (HIP, including gestational diabetes and pre-existing type 1 and type 2 diabetes) is increasing, with associated risks to the health of women and their babies. Strategies to manage and prevent this condition are contested. Dynamic simulation models (DSM) can test policy and program scenarios before implementation in the real world.

Epidemiology of Diabetes in Pregnancy Among First Nations and Non-First Nations Women in Saskatchewan, 1980‒2013. Part 2: Predictors and Early Complications; Results From the DIP: ORRIIGENSS Project.

Objectives: Because of disparities in incidence of diabetes in pregnancy (DIP) among First Nations (FN) and non-First Nations (non-FN) women in Saskatchewan, we compared predictors and early maternal/child complication rates of gestational diabetes (GDM) and pre-GDM between the 2 populations from 1980 to 2013.

Methods: Using Ministry of Health administrative databases, we examined overall GDM and pre-GDM predictors among a cohort of FN and non-FN women using logistic regression models. We compared early birth complications by ethnicity and DIP status using chi-square analysis.

Epidemiology of Diabetes in Pregnancy Among First Nations and Non-First Nations Women in Saskatchewan, 1980‒2013. Part 1: Populations, Methodology and Frequencies (1980‒2009); Results From the DIP: ORRIIGENSS Project.

Objectives: Because of the immediate and long-term consequences of diabetes in pregnancy (DIP) for mother and child, we compared frequencies of gestational diabetes (GDM) and pre-GDM between First Nations (FN) and non-FN people in Saskatchewan from 1980 to 2009.

Methods: Using Ministry of Health administrative databases, we conducted a retrospective cohort study of GDM and pre-GDM rates within all FN and non-FN pregnancies in Saskatchewan. Annual crude and 10-year age-adjusted incidence of GDM and pre-GDM were determined as were maternal age-specific rates of DIP.

Seeking the optimal schedule for chickenpox vaccination in Canada: Using an agent-based model to explore the impact of dose timing, coverage and waning of immunity on disease outcomes.

Many countries continue to consider implementing a universal chickenpox vaccine program; however, there is no consensus on the most appropriate and effective timing between vaccine doses. The chickenpox vaccine schedule debate is highlighted in Canada, where there are currently eight different vaccine schedules across the country. The objective of this study was to test the overall effectiveness of chickenpox vaccination, as well as the specific impact of two different vaccine schedules, on chickenpox disease outcomes in Alberta over 75 years.

Intrinsic dimensionality of human behavioral activity data.

Patterns of spatial behavior dictate how we use our infrastructure, encounter other people, or are exposed to services and opportunities. Understanding these patterns through the analysis of data commonly available through commodity smartphones has become an important arena for innovation in both academia and industry. The resulting datasets can quickly become massive, indicating the need for concise understanding of the scope of the data collected.

Turning conceptual systems maps into dynamic simulation models: An Australian case study for diabetes in pregnancy.

Background: System science approaches are increasingly used to explore complex public health problems. Quantitative methods, such as participatory dynamic simulation modelling, can mobilise knowledge to inform health policy decisions. However, the analytic and practical steps required to turn collaboratively developed, qualitative system maps into rigorous and policy-relevant quantified dynamic simulation models are not well described.