Digital transformation in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.

Digital transformation refers to the widespread use of digital technologies in ways that reshape societal and economic activity, with significant impacts on sustainable development and climate challenges-both for better and for worse. Using statistical models calibrated to historical evidence in 62 countries across 12 world regions, we project future digital transformation within the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), adding contextual richness to this scenario framework used extensively in global climate research. In some scenarios, we find a pervasive and prolonged digital divide with up to 45% of the assessed population by mid-century still residing in countries with relatively low levels of digital transformation despite ever-deepening digitalisation in wealthier countries.

Political enablers of ambitious climate policies: a framework and thematic review.

Currently, most research explaining why countries lead or lag in climate policy assumes a problem-oriented perspective, focusing on barriers to climate policy adoption. Here, we argue that correcting for past failures, solving problems, and bringing climate policies back on track for the Paris Agreement requires a solution-oriented perspective on the political enablers of ambitious climate policies. We unite a growing research community that has previously been scattered across disciplinary subfields with various ontological and epistemological assumptions.

Adaptation constraints in scenarios of socio-economic development.

Climate change adaptation is paramount, but increasing evidence suggests that adaptation action is subject to a range of constraints. For a realistic assessment of future adaptation prospects, it is crucial to understand the timescales needed to overcome these constraints. Here, we combine data on documented adaptation from the Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative with national macro indicators and assess future changes in adaptation constraints alongside the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, spanning a wide range of future socio-economic development scenarios.

Intergenerational inequities in exposure to climate extremes.

Young generations are severely threatened by climate change.

Overcoming gender inequality for climate resilient development.

Gender inequalities are reflected in differential vulnerability, and exposure to the hazards posed by climate change and addressing them is key to increase the adaptive capacities of societies. We provide trajectories of the Gender Inequality Index (GII) alongside the Shared-Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), a scenario framework widely used in climate science. Here we find that rapid improvements in gender inequality are possible under a sustainable development scenario already in the near-term.