High-resolution climate data reveals increased risk of Pierce's disease for grapevines worldwide.

Range shifts in plant disease distributions are sensitive to scaling processes; however, few crop case studies have included these considerations. High-quality wines are increasingly being produced in topographically heterogeneous river valleys, and disease models that capture steep relief gradients are especially relevant. Here, we show that nonlinear epidemiological models more accurately reflect the threat of an emerging grapevine pathogen in areas with significant spatial gradients.

Linking intercontinental biogeographic events to decipher how European vineyards escaped Pierce's disease.

Global change is believed to be a major driver of the emergence of invasive pathogens. Yet, there are few documented examples that illustrate the processes that hinder or trigger their geographic spread. Here, we present phylogenetic, epidemiological and historical evidence to explain how European vineyards escaped (Xf), the vector-borne bacterium responsible for Pierce's disease (PD).

Global warming significantly increases the risk of Pierce's disease epidemics in European vineyards.

Pierce's disease (PD) is a vector-borne disease caused by the bacteria Xylella fastidiosa, which affects grapevines in the Americas. Currently, vineyards in continental Europe, the world's largest producer of quality wine, have not yet been affected by PD. However, climate change may alter this situation.

Degree-day-based model to predict egg hatching of Philaenus spumarius (Hemiptera: Aphrophoridae), the main vector of Xylella fastidiosa in Europe.

Philaenus spumarius L., the main vector of Xylella fastidiosa (Wells) in Europe, is a univoltine species that overwinters in the egg stage, and its nymphs emerge in late winter or spring. Predicting the time of egg hatching is essential for determining the precise times for deploying control strategies against insect pests.

A Compartmental Model for Diseases with Explicit Vector Seasonal Dynamics.

The bacterium is mainly transmitted by the meadow spittlebug in Europe, where it has caused significant economic damage to olive and almond trees. Understanding the factors that determine disease dynamics in pathosystems that share similarities can help to design control strategies focused on minimizing transmission chains. Here, we introduce a compartmental model for -caused diseases in Europe that accounts for the main relevant epidemiological processes, including the seasonal dynamics of .

Vector-borne diseases with nonstationary vector populations: The case of growing and decaying populations.

Since the last century, deterministic compartmental models have emerged as powerful tools to predict and control epidemic outbreaks, in many cases helping to mitigate their impacts. A key quantity for these models is the so-called basic reproduction number, R_{0}, that measures the number of secondary infections produced by an initial infected individual in a fully susceptible population. Some methods have been developed to allow the direct computation of this quantity provided that some conditions are fulfilled, such that the model has a prepandemic disease-free equilibrium state.

Global predictions for the risk of establishment of Pierce's disease of grapevines.

The vector-borne bacterium Xylella fastidiosa is responsible for Pierce's disease (PD), a lethal grapevine disease that originated in the Americas. The international plant trade is expanding the geographic range of this pathogen, posing a new threat to viticulture worldwide. To assess the potential incidence of PD, we have built a dynamic epidemiological model based on the response of 36 grapevine varieties to the pathogen in inoculation assays and on the vectors' distribution when this information is available.

Bifurcation structure of traveling pulses in type-I excitable media.

We study the scenario in which traveling pulses emerge in a prototypical type-I one-dimensional excitable medium, which exhibits two different routes to excitable behavior, mediated by a homoclinic (saddle-loop) and a saddle-node on the invariant cycle bifurcations. We characterize the region in parameter space in which traveling pulses are stable together with the different bifurcations behind either their destruction or loss of stability. In particular, some of the bifurcations delimiting the stability region have been connected, using singular limits, with the two different scenarios that mediated type-I local excitability.

Spatial effects in parasite-induced marine diseases of immobile hosts.

Emerging marine infectious diseases pose a substantial threat to marine ecosystems and the conservation of their biodiversity. Compartmental models of epidemic transmission in marine sessile organisms, available only recently, are based on non-spatial descriptions in which space is homogenized and parasite mobility is not explicitly accounted for. However, in realistic scenarios epidemic transmission is conditioned by the spatial distribution of hosts and the parasites' mobility patterns, calling for an explicit description of space.

pH trends and seasonal cycle in the coastal Balearic Sea reconstructed through machine learning.

The decreasing seawater pH trend associated with increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels is an issue of concern due to possible negative consequences for marine organisms, especially calcifiers. Globally, coastal areas represent important transitional land-ocean zones with complex interactions between biological, physical and chemical processes. Here, we evaluated the pH variability at two sites in the coastal area of the Balearic Sea (Western Mediterranean).

Traveling pulses in type-I excitable media.

We consider a general model exhibiting type-I excitability mediated by a homoclinic and a saddle node on the invariant circle bifurcations. We show how the distinct properties of type-I with respect to type-II excitability confer unique features to traveling pulses in excitable media. They inherit the characteristic divergence of type-I excitable trajectories at threshold exhibiting analogous scalings in the spatial thickness of the pulses.

Formation of localized structures in bistable systems through nonlocal spatial coupling. II. The nonlocal Ginzburg-Landau equation.

We study the influence of a linear nonlocal spatial coupling on the interaction of fronts connecting two equivalent stable states in the prototypical 1-dimensional real Ginzburg-Landau equation. While for local coupling the fronts are always monotonic and therefore the dynamical behavior leads to coarsening and the annihilation of pairs of fronts, nonlocal terms can induce spatial oscillations in the front, allowing for the creation of localized structures, emerging from pinning between two fronts. We show this for three different nonlocal influence kernels.

Formation of localized structures in bistable systems through nonlocal spatial coupling. I. General framework.

The present work studies the influence of nonlocal spatial coupling on the existence of localized structures in one-dimensional extended systems. We consider systems described by a real field with a nonlocal coupling that has a linear dependence on the field. Leveraging spatial dynamics we provide a general framework to understand the effect of the nonlocality on the shape of the fronts connecting two stable states.

Spectrum of genetic diversity and networks of clonal organisms.

Clonal reproduction characterizes a wide range of species including clonal plants in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and clonal microbes such as bacteria and parasitic protozoa, with a key role in human health and ecosystem processes. Clonal organisms present a particular challenge in population genetics because, in addition to the possible existence of replicates of the same genotype in a given sample, some of the hypotheses and concepts underlying classical population genetics models are irreconcilable with clonality. The genetic structure and diversity of clonal populations were examined using a combination of new tools to analyse microsatellite data in the marine angiosperm Posidonia oceanica.

Phase-space structure of two-dimensional excitable localized structures.

In this work we characterize in detail the bifurcation leading to an excitable regime mediated by localized structures in a dissipative nonlinear Kerr cavity with a homogeneous pump. Here we show how the route can be understood through a planar dynamical system in which a limit cycle becomes the homoclinic orbit of a saddle point (saddle-loop bifurcation). The whole picture is unveiled, and the mechanism by which this reduction occurs from the full infinite-dimensional dynamical system is studied.

Experimental study of the transitions between synchronous chaos and a periodic rotating wave.

In this work we characterize experimentally the transition between periodic rotating waves and synchronized chaos in a ring of unidirectionally coupled Lorenz oscillators by means of electronic circuits. The study is complemented by numerical and theoretical analysis, and the intermediate states and their transitions are identified. The route linking periodic behavior with synchronous chaos involves quasiperiodic behavior and a type of high-dimensional chaos known as chaotic rotating wave.

Comment on "Periodic phase synchronization in coupled chaotic oscillators".

Kye [Phys. Rev. E 68, 025201 (2003)] have recently claimed that, before the onset of chaotic phase synchronization in coupled phase coherent oscillators, there exists a temporally coherent state called periodic phase synchronization (PPS).

Excitability mediated by localized structures in a dissipative nonlinear optical cavity.

We find and characterize an excitability regime mediated by localized structures in a dissipative nonlinear optical cavity. The scenario is that stable localized structures exhibit a Hopf bifurcation to self-pulsating behavior, that is followed by the destruction of the oscillation in a saddle-loop bifurcation. Beyond this point there is a regime of excitable localized structures under the application of suitable perturbations.

Rare events and scale-invariant dynamics of perturbations in delayed chaotic systems.

We study the dynamics of perturbations in time-delay dynamical systems. Using a suitable space-time coordinate transformation, we find that the time evolution of the linearized perturbations (Lyapunov vector) can be described by the linear Zhang surface growth model [J. Phys.

Universal scaling of Lyapunov exponents in coupled chaotic oscillators.

We have uncovered a phenomenon in coupled chaotic oscillators where a subset of Lyapunov exponents, which are originally zero in the absence of coupling, can become positive as the coupling is increased. This occurs for chaotic attractors having multiple scrolls, such as the Lorenz attractor. We argue that the phenomenon is due to the disturbance to the relative frequencies with which a trajectory visits different scrolls of the attractor.