Differential effects of tobacco taxation across educational groups: evidence from Poland.

Objective: Assessing the impact of the recent excise hike in Poland, with particular attention to differences between tertiary-educated and non-tertiary-educated populations.

Methods: We use the nationally representative Household Budget Survey data from 2010 to 2022 to estimate changes in smoking behaviour in response to cigarette affordability at both the extensive and intensive margins. Combining these estimates with European Health Interview Survey data, we simulate the effects of excise hikes for smoking prevalence and consumption in 2025-2027.