Intensifying Fire Season Aridity Portends Ongoing Expansion of Severe Wildfire in Western US Forests.

Area burned by wildfire has increased in western US forests and elsewhere over recent decades coincident with warmer and drier fire seasons. However, high-severity fire-fire that kills all or most trees-is arguably a more important metric of fire activity given its destabilizing influence on forest ecosystems and direct and indirect impacts to human communities. Here, we quantified area burned and area burned severely in western US forests from 1985 to 2022 and evaluated trends through time.

Aspen impedes wildfire spread in southwestern United States landscapes.

Aspen (Populus tremuloides) forests are generally thought to impede fire spread, yet the extent of this effect is not well quantified in relation to other vegetation types. We examined the influence of aspen cover on interpolated daily fire spread rates, the relative abundance of aspen at fire perimeters versus burn interiors, and whether these relationships shifted under more fire-conducive atmospheric conditions. Our study incorporated 314 fires occurring between 2001 and 2020 in the southwestern United States and a suite of gridded vegetation, topography, and fire weather predictor variables.

Extreme Fire Spread Events Burn More Severely and Homogenize Postfire Landscapes in the Southwestern United States.

Extreme fire spread events rapidly burn large areas with disproportionate impacts on people and ecosystems. Such events are associated with warmer and drier fire seasons and are expected to increase in the future. Our understanding of the landscape outcomes of extreme events is limited, particularly regarding whether they burn more severely or produce spatial patterns less conducive to ecosystem recovery.

Correction to: Drought as an emergent driver of ecological transformation in the twenty-first century.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1093/biosci/biae050.].

Drought as an emergent driver of ecological transformation in the twenty-first century.

Under climate change, ecosystems are experiencing novel drought regimes, often in combination with stressors that reduce resilience and amplify drought's impacts. Consequently, drought appears increasingly likely to push systems beyond important physiological and ecological thresholds, resulting in substantial changes in ecosystem characteristics persisting long after drought ends (i.e.

Refuge-yeah or refuge-nah? Predicting locations of forest resistance and recruitment in a fiery world.

Climate warming, land use change, and altered fire regimes are driving ecological transformations that can have critical effects on Earth's biota. Fire refugia-locations that are burned less frequently or severely than their surroundings-may act as sites of relative stability during this period of rapid change by being resistant to fire and supporting post-fire recovery in adjacent areas. Because of their value to forest ecosystem persistence, there is an urgent need to anticipate where refugia are most likely to be found and where they align with environmental conditions that support post-fire tree recruitment.

Reduced fire severity offers near-term buffer to climate-driven declines in conifer resilience across the western United States.

Increasing fire severity and warmer, drier postfire conditions are making forests in the western United States (West) vulnerable to ecological transformation. Yet, the relative importance of and interactions between these drivers of forest change remain unresolved, particularly over upcoming decades. Here, we assess how the interactive impacts of changing climate and wildfire activity influenced conifer regeneration after 334 wildfires, using a dataset of postfire conifer regeneration from 10,230 field plots.

Postfire futures in southwestern forests: Climate and landscape influences on trajectories of recovery and conversion.

Southwestern ponderosa pine forests are vulnerable to fire-driven conversion in a warming and drying climate, yet little is known about what kinds of ecological communities may replace them. To characterize postfire vegetation trajectories and their environmental determinants, plant assemblages (361 sample plots including 229 vascular plant species, surveyed in 2017) were sampled within eight burns that occurred between 2000 and 2003. I used nonmetric multidimensional scaling, k-means clustering, principal component analysis, and random forest models to assess relationships between vegetation pattern, topographic and landscape factors, and gridded climate data.

Forest and woodland replacement patterns following drought-related mortality.

Forest vulnerability to drought is expected to increase under anthropogenic climate change, and drought-induced mortality and community dynamics following drought have major ecological and societal impacts. Here, we show that tree mortality concomitant with drought has led to short-term (mean 5 y, range 1 to 23 y after mortality) vegetation-type conversion in multiple biomes across the world (131 sites). Self-replacement of the dominant tree species was only prevalent in 21% of the examined cases and forests and woodlands shifted to nonwoody vegetation in 10% of them.

The future of subalpine forests in the Southern Rocky Mountains: Trajectories for Pinus aristata genetic lineages.

Like many other high elevation alpine tree species, Rocky Mountain bristlecone pine (Pinus aristata Engelm.) may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. To evaluate its potential vulnerability to shifts in climate, we defined the suitable climate space for each of four genetic lineages of bristlecone pine and for other subalpine tree species in close proximity to bristlecone pine forests.

Influences of prior wildfires on vegetation response to subsequent fire in a reburned Southwestern landscape.

Large and severe wildfires have raised concerns about the future of forested landscapes in the southwestern United States, especially under repeated burning. In 2011, under extreme weather and drought conditions, the Las Conchas fire burned over several previous burns as well as forests not recently exposed to fire. Our purpose was to examine the influences of prior wildfires on plant community composition and structure, subsequent burn severity, and vegetation response.

Constraints on tree seedling establishment in montane grasslands of the Valles Caldera, New Mexico.

Montane and subalpine grasslands are prominent, but poorly understood, features of the Rocky Mountains. These communities frequently occur below reversed tree lines on valley floors, where nightly cold air accumulation is spatially coupled with fine soil texture. We used field experiments to assess the roles of minimum temperature, soil texture, grass competition, and ungulate browsing on the growth, photosynthetic performance, and survival of transplanted ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) seedlings at 32 sites straddling such reversed tree lines in the Valles Caldera National Preserve (VCNP) of the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico (USA).