The importance of distinguishing between natural and managed tree cover gains in the moist tropics.

Naturally regenerated forests and managed tree systems provide different levels of carbon, biodiversity, and livelihood benefits. Here, we show that tree cover gains in the moist tropics during 1982-2015 were 56% ± 3% naturally regenerated forests and 27% ± 2.6% managed tree systems, with these differences in forest type, not only natural conditions (climate, soil, and topography), driving observed carbon recovery rates.

Inferring Economic Impacts from a Program's Physical Outcomes: An Application to Forest Protection in Thailand.

Economists typically estimate the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) when evaluating government programs. The economic interpretation of the ATT can be ambiguous when program outcomes are measured in purely physical terms, as they often are in evaluations of environmental programs (e.g.

Global economic consequences of selected surgical diseases: a modelling study.

Background: The surgical burden of disease is substantial, but little is known about the associated economic consequences. We estimate the global macroeconomic impact of the surgical burden of disease due to injury, neoplasm, digestive diseases, and maternal and neonatal disorders from two distinct economic perspectives.

Methods: We obtained mortality rate estimates for each disease for the years 2000 and 2010 from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation Global Burden of Disease 2010 study, and estimates of the proportion of the burden of the selected diseases that is surgical from a paper by Shrime and colleagues.

Tropical countries may be willing to pay more to protect their forests.

Inadequate funding from developed countries has hampered international efforts to conserve biodiversity in tropical forests. We present two complementary research approaches that reveal a significant increase in public demand for conservation within tropical developing countries as those countries reach upper-middle-income (UMI) status. We highlight UMI tropical countries because they contain nearly four-fifths of tropical primary forests, which are rich in biodiversity and stored carbon.

Unobserved time effects confound the identification of climate change impacts.

A recent study by Feng et al. [Feng S, Krueger A, Oppenheimer M (2010) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107:14257-14262] in PNAS reported statistical evidence of a weather-driven causal effect of crop yields on human migration from Mexico to the United States. We show that this conclusion is based on a different statistical model than the one stated in the paper.

The clinical and economic impact of a sustained program in global plastic surgery: valuing cleft care in resource-poor settings.

Background: The development of surgery in low- and middle-income countries has been limited by a belief that it is too expensive to be sustainable. However, subspecialist surgical care can provide substantial clinical and economic benefits in low-resource settings. The goal of this study is to describe the clinical and economic impact of recurrent short-term plastic surgical trips in low- and middle-income countries.

Obstructed labor and caesarean delivery: the cost and benefit of surgical intervention.

Background: Although advances in the reduction of maternal mortality have been made, up to 273,000 women will die this year from obstetric etiologies. Obstructed labor (OL), most commonly treated with Caesarean delivery, has been identified as a major contributor to global maternal morbidity and mortality. We used economic and epidemiological modeling to estimate the cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted and benefit-cost ratio of treating OL with Caesarean delivery for 49 countries identified as providing an insufficient number of Caesarean deliveries to meet demand.

Costs and benefits of neurosurgical intervention for infant hydrocephalus in sub-Saharan Africa.

Object: Evidence from the CURE Children's Hospital of Uganda (CCHU) suggests that treatment for hydrocephalus in infants can be effective and sustainable in a developing country. This model has not been broadly supported or implemented due in part to the absence of data on the economic burden of disease or any assessment of the cost and benefit of treatment. The authors used economic modeling to estimate the annual cost and benefit of treating hydrocephalus in infants at CCHU.

Potential economic benefit of cleft lip and palate repair in sub-Saharan Africa.

Background: Acceptance of basic surgical care as an essential element of any properly functioning health system is growing. To justify investment in surgical interventions, donors require estimates of the economic benefit of treating surgical disease. The present study aimed to establish a methodology for valuing the potential economic benefit of surgical intervention using cleft lip and palate (CLP) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) as a model.

Rice yields in tropical/subtropical Asia exhibit large but opposing sensitivities to minimum and maximum temperatures.

Data from farmer-managed fields have not been used previously to disentangle the impacts of daily minimum and maximum temperatures and solar radiation on rice yields in tropical/subtropical Asia. We used a multiple regression model to analyze data from 227 intensively managed irrigated rice farms in six important rice-producing countries. The farm-level detail, observed over multiple growing seasons, enabled us to construct farm-specific weather variables, control for unobserved factors that either were unique to each farm but did not vary over time or were common to all farms at a given site but varied by season and year, and obtain more precise estimates by including farm- and site-specific economic variables.

Mangroves protected villages and reduced death toll during Indian super cyclone.

Protection against coastal disasters has been identified as an important service of mangrove ecosystems. Empirical studies on this service have been criticized, however, for using small samples and inadequately controlling for confounding factors. We used data on several hundred villages to test the impact of mangroves on human deaths during a 1999 super cyclone that struck Orissa, India.

Integrated model shows that atmospheric brown clouds and greenhouse gases have reduced rice harvests in India.

Previous studies have found that atmospheric brown clouds partially offset the warming effects of greenhouse gases. This finding suggests a tradeoff between the impacts of reducing emissions of aerosols and greenhouse gases. Results from a statistical model of historical rice harvests in India, coupled with regional climate scenarios from a parallel climate model, indicate that joint reductions in brown clouds and greenhouse gases would in fact have complementary, positive impacts on harvests.

The cost of HIV/AIDS to businesses in southern Africa.

Background: Information on the potential costs of HIV/AIDS to the private sector is needed if companies are to be given a financial incentive to invest in prevention and treatment interventions.

Objectives: To estimate the cost of HIV/AIDS to businesses in southern Africa using company-specific data on employees, costs, and HIV prevalence.

Methods: : Six formal sector enterprises in South Africa and Botswana provided detailed human resource, financial, and medical data and carried out voluntary, anonymous HIV seroprevalence surveys.

AIDS is your business.

If your company operates in a developing country, AIDS is your business. While Africa has received the most attention, AIDS is also spreading swiftly in other parts of the world. Russia and Ukraine had the fastest-growing epidemics last year, and many experts believe China and India will suffer the next tidal wave of infection.