Paleorecords Reveal Biological Mechanisms Crucial for Reliable Species Range Shift Projections Amid Rapid Climate Change.

The recent acceleration of global climate warming has created an urgent need for reliable projections of species distributions, widely used by natural resource managers. Such projections have been mainly produced by species distribution models with little information on their performances in novel climates. Here, we hindcast the range shifts of forest tree species across Europe over the last 12,000 years to compare the reliability of three different types of models.

Stable water isotopes reveal the onset of bud dormancy in temperate trees, whereas water content is a better proxy for dormancy release.

Earlier spring growth onset in temperate forests is a visible effect of global warming that alters global water and carbon cycling. Consequently, it becomes crucial to accurately predict the future spring phenological shifts in vegetation under different climate warming scenarios. However, current phenological models suffer from a lack of physiological insights of tree dormancy and are rarely experimentally validated.

Reproduction alternation in trees: testing the resource depletion hypothesis using experimental fruit removal in Quercus ilex.

The keystones of resource budget models to explain mast seeding are that fruit production depletes tree stored resources, which become subsequently limiting to flower production the following year. These two hypotheses have, however, rarely been tested in forest trees. Using a fruit removal experiment, we tested whether preventing fruit development would increase nutrient and carbohydrates storage and modify allocation to reproduction and vegetative growth the following year.

Is a seasonally reduced growth potential a convergent strategy to survive drought and frost in plants?

Background: Plants have adapted to survive seasonal life-threatening frost and drought. However, the timing and frequency of such events are impacted by climate change, jeopardizing plant survival. Understanding better the strategies of survival to dehydration stress is therefore timely and can be enhanced by the cross-fertilization of research between disciplines (ecology, physiology), models (woody, herbaceous species) and types of stress (drought, frost).

Holm oak fecundity does not acclimate to a drier world.

Climate change might impact tree fecundity by altering the relative influences of meteorological and physiological drivers, and by modifying resource investment in reproduction. Using a 13-yr monitoring of Quercus ilex reproduction in a rainfall exclusion experiment, we analysed the interactive effects of long-term increased aridity and other environmental drivers on the inter-annual variation of fecundity (male flower biomass, number of initiated and mature fruits). Summer-autumn water stress was the main driver of fruit abortion during fruit growth.

Resource manipulation through experimental defoliation has legacy effects on allocation to reproductive and vegetative organs in Quercus ilex.

Background And Aims: In plants, high costs of reproduction during some years can induce trade-offs in resource allocation with other functions such as growth, survival and resistance against herbivores or extreme abiotic conditions, but also with subsequent reproduction. Such trade-offs might also occur following resource shortage at particular moments of the reproductive cycle. Because plants are modular organisms, strategies for resource allocation to reproduction can also vary among hierarchical levels.

Where is the optimum? Predicting the variation of selection along climatic gradients and the adaptive value of plasticity. A case study on tree phenology.

Many theoretical models predict when genetic evolution and phenotypic plasticity allow adaptation to changing environmental conditions. These models generally assume stabilizing selection around some optimal phenotype. We however often ignore how optimal phenotypes change with the environment, which limit our understanding of the adaptive value of phenotypic plasticity.

Flower phenology as a disruptor of the fruiting dynamics in temperate oak species.

Many perennial plants display masting, that is, fruiting with strong interannual variations, irregular and synchronized between trees within the population. Here, we tested the hypothesis that the early flower phenology in temperate oak species promotes stochasticity into their fruiting dynamics, which could play a major role in tree reproductive success. From a large field monitoring network, we compared the pollen phenology between temperate and Mediterranean oak species.

A reversal of the shift towards earlier spring phenology in several Mediterranean reptiles and amphibians during the 1998-2013 warming slowdown.

Herps, especially amphibians, are particularly susceptible to climate change, as temperature tightly controls many parameters of their biological cycle-above all, their phenology. The timing of herps' activity or migration period-in particular the dates of their first appearance in spring and first breeding-and the shift to earlier dates in response to warming since the last quarter of the 20 century has often been described up to now as a nearly monotonic trend towards earlier phenological events. In this study, we used citizen science data opportunistically collected on reptiles and amphibians in the northern Mediterranean basin over a period of 32 years to explore temporal variations in herp phenology.

Assessing frost damages using dynamic models in walnut trees: exposure rather than vulnerability controls frost risks.

Frost damages develop when exposure overtakes frost vulnerability. Frost risk assessment therefore needs dynamic simulation of frost hardiness using temperature and photoperiod in interaction with developmental stage. Two models, including or not the effect of photoperiod, were calibrated using five years of frost hardiness monitoring (2007-2012), in two locations (low and high elevation) for three walnut genotypes with contrasted phenology and maximum hardiness (Juglans regia cv Franquette, J.

Can phenological models predict tree phenology accurately in the future? The unrevealed hurdle of endodormancy break.

The onset of the growing season of trees has been earlier by 2.3 days per decade during the last 40 years in temperate Europe because of global warming. The effect of temperature on plant phenology is, however, not linear because temperature has a dual effect on bud development.

Phenological plasticity will not help all species adapt to climate change.

Concerns are rising about the capacity of species to adapt quickly enough to climate change. In long-lived organisms such as trees, genetic adaptation is slow, and how much phenotypic plasticity can help them cope with climate change remains largely unknown. Here, we assess whether, where and when phenological plasticity is and will be adaptive in three major European tree species.

How climate, migration ability and habitat fragmentation affect the projected future distribution of European beech.

Recent efforts to incorporate migration processes into species distribution models (SDMs) are allowing assessments of whether species are likely to be able to track their future climate optimum and the possible causes of failing to do so. Here, we projected the range shift of European beech over the 21st century using a process-based SDM coupled to a phenomenological migration model accounting for population dynamics, according to two climate change scenarios and one land use change scenario. Our model predicts that the climatically suitable habitat for European beech will shift north-eastward and upward mainly because (i) higher temperature and precipitation, at the northern range margins, will increase survival and fruit maturation success, while (ii) lower precipitations and higher winter temperature, at the southern range margins, will increase drought mortality and prevent bud dormancy breaking.

Changes in the distribution of multispecies pest assemblages affect levels of crop damage in warming tropical Andes.

Climate induced species range shifts might create novel interactions among species that may outweigh direct climatic effects. In an agricultural context, climate change might alter the intensity of competition or facilitation interactions among pests with, potentially, negative consequences on the levels of damage to crop. This could threaten the productivity of agricultural systems and have negative impacts on food security, but has yet been poorly considered in studies.

How can model comparison help improving species distribution models?

Today, more than ever, robust projections of potential species range shifts are needed to anticipate and mitigate the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Such projections are so far provided almost exclusively by correlative species distribution models (correlative SDMs). However, concerns regarding the reliability of their predictive power are growing and several authors call for the development of process-based SDMs.

Modeling temperature-dependent survival with small datasets: insights from tropical mountain agricultural pests.

Many regions are increasingly threatened by agricultural pests but suffer from a lack of data that hampers the development of adequate population dynamics models that could contribute to pest management strategies. Here, we present a new model relating pest survival to temperature and compare its performance with two published models. We were particularly interested in their ability to simulate the deleterious effect of extreme temperatures even when adjusted to datasets that did not include extreme temperature conditions.

Climate change impacts on tree ranges: model intercomparison facilitates understanding and quantification of uncertainty.

Model-based projections of shifts in tree species range due to climate change are becoming an important decision support tool for forest management. However, poorly evaluated sources of uncertainty require more scrutiny before relying heavily on models for decision-making. We evaluated uncertainty arising from differences in model formulations of tree response to climate change based on a rigorous intercomparison of projections of tree distributions in France.

How do genetic correlations affect species range shifts in a changing environment?

Species may be able to respond to changing environments by a combination of adaptation and migration. We study how adaptation affects range shifts when it involves multiple quantitative traits evolving in response to local selection pressures and gene flow. All traits develop clines shifting in space, some of which may be in a direction opposite to univariate predictions, and the species tracks its environmental optimum with a constant lag.

Why does phenology drive species distribution?

Despite the numerous studies which have been conducted during the past decade on species ranges and their relationship to the environment, our understanding of how environmental conditions shape species distribution is still far from complete. Yet, some process-based species distribution models have been able to simulate plants and insects distribution at a global scale. These models strongly rely on the completion of the annual cycle of the species and therefore on their accomplished phenology.

Changes in leaf phenology of three European oak species in response to experimental climate change.

*Because the phenology of trees is strongly driven by environmental factors such as temperature, climate change has already altered the vegetative and reproductive phenology of many species, especially in the temperate zone. Here, we aimed to determine whether projected levels of warming for the upcoming decades will lead to linear changes in the phenology of trees or to more complex responses. *We report the results of a 3-yr common garden experiment designed to study the phenological response to artificial climate change, obtained through experimental warming and reduced precipitation, of several populations of three European oaks, two deciduous species (Quercus robur, Quercus pubescens) and one evergreen species (Quercus ilex), in a Mediterranean site.

Process-based modeling of species' distributions: what limits temperate tree species' range boundaries?

Niche-based models are widely used to understand what environmental factors determine species' distributions, but they do not provide a clear framework to study the processes involved in defining species' ranges. Here we used a process-based model to identify these processes and to assess the potential distribution of 17 North American boreal/temperate tree species. Using input of only climate and soil properties, the model reproduced the 17 species' distributions accurately.

Shifting plant phenology in response to global change.

Plants are finely tuned to the seasonality of their environment, and shifts in the timing of plant activity (i.e. phenology) provide some of the most compelling evidence that species and ecosystems are being influenced by global environmental change.

Variation in cold hardiness and carbohydrate concentration from dormancy induction to bud burst among provenances of three European oak species.

Although cold hardiness is known to be a major determinant of tree species distribution, its dynamics and the factors that regulate it remain poorly understood. Variation in cold hardiness and carbohydrate concentration, from dormancy induction until bud burst, were investigated in populations of two deciduous (Quercus robur L. and Quercus pubescens Willd.