Allometric scale model reveals temperature effects on growth and reproduction in Daphnia magna.

Climate change amplifies temperature variability, thereby subjecting organisms to increased stress as they more frequently encounter temperatures outside their optimal range. Temperature influences resource distribution across fundamental processes in organisms, such as metabolism, reproduction and overall fitness, yet energy allocation strategies are primarily understood under stable temperature conditions. Predicting organisms' responses to fluctuating temperatures, however, remains challenging.

Progress and inequality in child immunization in 38 African countries, 2000-2030: A spatio-temporal Bayesian analysis at national and sub-national levels.

Background: Monitoring progress and inequality in childhood immunization coverage at both national and sub-national levels is essential for refining equity-oriented health programs and ensuring equitable access to care towards achieving global targets in African countries.

Methods And Findings: Using approximately 1 million records from 104 nationally representative Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) conducted in 38 African countries (2000-2019), we estimated childhood immunization coverage for key indicators (BCG, MCV1, DPT3, Polio3, and Full immunization), stratified by socioeconomic status. Variations of Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis using Besag, Besag-York-Mollié (BYM) and BYM2 models were employed to assess and project the trends from 2000 to 2030.

Synthesis reveals approximately balanced biotic differentiation and homogenization.

It is commonly thought that the biodiversity crisis includes widespread declines in the spatial variation of species composition, called biotic homogenization. Using a typology relating homogenization and differentiation to local and regional diversity changes, we synthesize patterns across 461 metacommunities surveyed for 10 to 91 years, and 64 species checklists (13 to 500+ years). Across all datasets, we found that no change was the most common outcome, but with many instances of homogenization and differentiation.

Parental care results in a greater mutation load, for which it is also a phenotypic antidote.

Benevolent social behaviours, such as parental care, are thought to enable mildly deleterious mutations to persist. We tested this prediction experimentally using the burying beetle , an insect with biparental care. For 20 generations, we allowed replicate experimental burying beetle populations to evolve either with post-hatching care ('Full Care' populations) or without it ('No Care' populations).

Regional occupancy increases for widespread species but decreases for narrowly distributed species in metacommunity time series.

While human activities are known to elicit rapid turnover in species composition through time, the properties of the species that increase or decrease their spatial occupancy underlying this turnover are less clear. Here, we used an extensive dataset of 238 metacommunity time series of multiple taxa spread across the globe to evaluate whether species that are more widespread (large-ranged species) differed in how they changed their site occupancy over the 10-90 years the metacommunities were monitored relative to species that are more narrowly distributed (small-ranged species). We found that on average, large-ranged species tended to increase in occupancy through time, whereas small-ranged species tended to decrease.

Local biodiversity change reflects interactions among changing abundance, evenness, and richness.

Biodiversity metrics often integrate data on the presence and abundance of multiple species. Yet our understanding of covariation between changes to the numbers of individuals, the evenness of species relative abundances, and the total number of species remains limited. Using individual-based rarefaction curves, we show how expected positive relationships among changes in abundance, evenness and richness arise, and how they can break down.

Long-term changes in temperate marine fish assemblages are driven by a small subset of species.

The species composition of plant and animal assemblages across the globe has changed substantially over the past century. How do the dynamics of individual species cause this change? We classified species into seven unique categories of temporal dynamics based on the ordered sequence of presences and absences that each species contributes to an assemblage time series. We applied this framework to 14,434 species trajectories comprising 280 assemblages of temperate marine fishes surveyed annually for 20 or more years.

Detecting Changes and Avoiding Catastrophic Forgetting in Dynamic Partially Observable Environments.

The ability of an agent to detect changes in an environment is key to successful adaptation. This ability involves at least two phases: learning a model of an environment, and detecting that a change is likely to have occurred when this model is no longer accurate. This task is particularly challenging in partially observable environments, such as those modeled with partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs).

Detecting multiple spatial disease clusters: information criterion and scan statistic approach.

Background: Detecting the geographical tendency for the presence of a disease or incident is, particularly at an early stage, a key challenge for preventing severe consequences. Given recent rapid advancements in information technologies, it is required a comprehensive framework that enables simultaneous detection of multiple spatial clusters, whether disease cases are randomly scattered or clustered around specific epicenters on a larger scale. We develop a new methodology that detects multiple spatial disease clusters and evaluates its performance compared to existing other methods.

A balance of winners and losers in the Anthropocene.

Scientists disagree about the nature of biodiversity change. While there is evidence for widespread declines from population surveys, assemblage surveys reveal a mix of declines and increases. These conflicting conclusions may be caused by the use of different metrics: assemblage metrics may average out drastic changes in individual populations.

Multiple-cluster detection test for purely temporal disease clustering: Integration of scan statistics and generalized linear models.

The spatial scan statistic is commonly used to detect spatial and/or temporal disease clusters in epidemiological studies. Although multiple clusters in the study space can be thus identified, current theoretical developments are mainly based on detecting a 'single' cluster. The standard scan statistic procedure enables the detection of multiple clusters, recursively identifying additional 'secondary' clusters.

On species richness and rarefaction: size- and coverage-based techniques quantify different characteristics of richness change in biodiversity.

Changes in biodiversity today shape the future patterns of biodiversity. This fact underlines the importance of understanding changes in biodiversity through time and space. The number of species, known as species richness, has long been studied as a key indicator that quantifies the state of biodiversity, and standardisation techniques, called rarefaction, have also been used to undertake a fair comparison of the richness observed at different times or locations.

Divergent biodiversity change within ecosystems.

The Earth's ecosystems are under unprecedented pressure, yet the nature of contemporary biodiversity change is not well understood. Growing evidence that community size is regulated highlights the need for improved understanding of community dynamics. As stability in community size could be underpinned by marked temporal turnover, a key question is the extent to which changes in both biodiversity dimensions (temporal α- and temporal β-diversity) covary within and among the assemblages that comprise natural communities.

Community-level regulation of temporal trends in biodiversity.

Many theoretical models of community dynamics predict that species richness () and total abundance () are regulated in their temporal fluctuations. We present novel evidence for widespread regulation of biodiversity. For 59 plant and animal assemblages from around the globe monitored annually for a decade or more, the majority exhibited regulated fluctuations compared to the null hypothesis of an unconstrained random walk.

Estimates of local biodiversity change over time stand up to scrutiny.

We present new data and analyses revealing fundamental flaws in a critique of two recent meta-analyses of local-scale temporal biodiversity change. First, the conclusion that short-term time series lead to biased estimates of long-term change was based on two errors in the simulations used to support it. Second, the conclusion of negative relationships between temporal biodiversity change and study duration was entirely dependent on unrealistic model assumptions, the use of a subset of data, and inclusion of one outlier data point in one study.

From species to communities: the signature of recreational use on a tropical river ecosystem.

Disturbance can impact natural communities in multiple ways. However, there has been a tendency to focus on single indicators of change when examining the effects of disturbance. This is problematic as classical diversity measures, such as Shannon and Simpson indices, do not always detect the effects of disturbance.

The daily incidence of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest unexpectedly increases around New Year's Day in Japan.

Background: Over 100,000 patients are diagnosed every year as out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) cases in Japan and their number has continued to rise for the last decade, presenting a challenge for preventive public health research as well as emergency medical care. The purpose of this study was to identify whether there are any temporal patterns in daily OHCA presentations in Japan.

Methods: Records of OHCA patients (n=701,651) transported by ambulance over the course of six years (1st January 2005 to 10th March 2011) in Japan were obtained from the All-Japan Utstein registry data of cardiopulmonary arrest patients.

Attenuation of species abundance distributions by sampling.

Quantifying biodiversity aspects such as species presence/ absence, richness and abundance is an important challenge to answer scientific and resource management questions. In practice, biodiversity can only be assessed from biological material taken by surveys, a difficult task given limited time and resources. A type of random sampling, or often called sub-sampling, is a commonly used technique to reduce the amount of time and effort for investigating large quantities of biological samples.

Spillover effects of a community-managed marine reserve.

The value of no-take marine reserves as fisheries-management tools is controversial, particularly in high-poverty areas where human populations depend heavily on fish as a source of protein. Spillover, the net export of adult fish, is one mechanism by which no-take marine reserves may have a positive influence on adjacent fisheries. Spillover can contribute to poverty alleviation, although its effect is modulated by the number of fishermen and fishing intensity.

Assemblage time series reveal biodiversity change but not systematic loss.

The extent to which biodiversity change in local assemblages contributes to global biodiversity loss is poorly understood. We analyzed 100 time series from biomes across Earth to ask how diversity within assemblages is changing through time. We quantified patterns of temporal α diversity, measured as change in local diversity, and temporal β diversity, measured as change in community composition.

Modelling temperature effects on milk production: a study on Holstein cows at a Japanese farm.

Milk yield and its composition vary according to individual cows as well as to a variety of different environment conditions, such as temperature. Previous studies suggest that heat exerts considerable negative effects on milk production and its composition, especially during summer months. We investigate the production and fat composition of milk from individual dairy cows and develop a modelling framework that investigates the effect of temperature by extending a traditional lactation curve model onto a more flexible statistical modelling framework, a generalised additive model (GAM).

Diversity is maintained by seasonal variation in species abundance.

Background: Some of the most marked temporal fluctuations in species abundances are linked to seasons. In theory, multispecies assemblages can persist if species use shared resources at different times, thereby minimizing interspecific competition. However, there is scant empirical evidence supporting these predictions and, to the best of our knowledge, seasonal variation has never been explored in the context of fluctuation-mediated coexistence.

Modelling swimmers' speeds over the course of a race.

A stochastic model of swimming speed over the course of a male 200m freestyle swimming race is proposed. It builds on a dynamical model reflecting the trade-off between drag and propulsion in swimming. The parameters of the model are estimated from elapsed time data observed at several points along the pool.