Quantifying the relative contributions of habitat modification and mammalian predators on landscape-scale declines of a threatened river specialist duck.

Habitat modification and introduced mammalian predators are linked to global species extinctions and declines, but their relative influences can be uncertain, often making conservation management difficult. Using landscape-scale models, we quantified the relative impacts of habitat modification and mammalian predation on the range contraction of a threatened New Zealand riverine duck. We combined 38 years of whio (Hymenolaimus malacorhynchos) observations with national-scale environmental data to predict relative likelihood of occurrence (RLO) under two scenarios using bootstrapped boosted regression trees (BRT).

The scaling of population persistence with carrying capacity does not asymptote in populations of a fish experiencing extreme climate variability.

Despite growing concerns regarding increasing frequency of extreme climate events and declining population sizes, the influence of environmental stochasticity on the relationship between population carrying capacity and time-to-extinction has received little empirical attention. While time-to-extinction increases exponentially with carrying capacity in constant environments, theoretical models suggest increasing environmental stochasticity causes asymptotic scaling, thus making minimum viable carrying capacity vastly uncertain in variable environments. Using empirical estimates of environmental stochasticity in fish metapopulations, we showed that increasing environmental stochasticity resulting from extreme droughts was insufficient to create asymptotic scaling of time-to-extinction with carrying capacity in local populations as predicted by theory.

Bioenergetic modelling of the marine phase of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.).

A bioenergetic model of marine phase, wild Atlantic salmon was constructed to investigate the potential effects on post-smolt growth of predicted changes in oceanic conditions. Short-term estimates of growth in weight were similar to measurements in captivity and simulated growth varied with water temperature and swimming speed as expected. Longer-term estimates of growth in length were less than that achieved by wild salmon, particularly with constant swimming assumed.