High-resolution habitat suitability maps for all widespread Italian breeding bird species.

Tackling the current global biodiversity crisis requires large-scale spatially accurate biodiversity data to rapidly assess knowledge gaps and set conservation priorities. Obtaining such data is often challenging because surveying biodiversity across broad spatial scales requires massive logistical and economic efforts. Here, we provide high-resolution (0.

Waterbird Species Are Highly Sensitive to Wetland Traits: Simulation-Based Conservation Strategies for the Birds of the Sicilian Wetlands (Italy).

In this study, we (a) formulated a general hypothesis about how wetland (functional and structural) traits influence avian diversity, (b) turned this hypothesis into a non-parametric Bayesian network, (c) disentangled the direct and indirect effects of the variables influencing waterbird species, and (d) simulated the changes expected to the levels of avian diversity as a result of numerous counterfactual and management scenarios. We applied our framework to the Sicilian wetlands as a whole; then, we downscaled simulations locally to a wetland of particular interest (Pantano Bruno). We found that (1) waterbird species are highly sensitive to wetland traits; (2) wetland traits have both direct and indirect effects upon alpha avian diversity; (3) the direct and indirect effects of wetland traits can be contrasting; (4) water level fluctuations (benefit), diversions (cost), and salinity (cost) are key factors for waterbird conservation; (5) these wetlands have the potential for hosting a level of alpha avian diversity that is double the baseline (from 19 to 38 species); (6) these wetlands are prone to ecological collapse if all traits deteriorate (from 19 to 6 species per wetland); and (7) the ecological information gained at the regional scale can be properly downscaled to the local scale to make inferences on single wetlands.

Simulation Modeling Unveils the Unalike Effects of Alternative Strategies for Waterbird Conservation in the Coastal Wetlands of Sardinia (Italy).

The Sardinian wetlands (Italy) act as stopover sites for many migratory birds along the central eastern Mediterranean bird flyway. These wetlands are now severely threatened by human activities and climate change. Accordingly, we built a simulation framework to predict the effects of several counterfactual and management scenarios on the level of avian diversity in the coastal wetlands of Sardinia.

Identifying climate refugia for high-elevation Alpine birds under current climate warming predictions.

Identifying climate refugia is key to effective biodiversity conservation under a changing climate, especially for mountain-specialist species adapted to cold conditions and highly threatened by climate warming. We combined species distribution models (SDMs) with climate forecasts to identify climate refugia for high-elevation bird species (Lagopus muta, Anthus spinoletta, Prunella collaris, Montifringilla nivalis) in the European Alps, where the ecological effects of climate changes are particularly evident and predicted to intensify. We considered future (2041-2070) conditions (SSP585 scenario, four climate models) and identified three types of refugia: (1) in-situ refugia potentially suitable under both current and future climate conditions, ex-situ refugia suitable (2) only in the future according to all future conditions, or (3) under at least three out of four future conditions.

Preserving the Mediterranean bird flyways: Assessment and prioritization of 38 main wetlands under human and climate threats in Sardinia and Sicily (Italy).

Wetlands provide a wide range of ecosystem services, including supplying the food and shelter for a rich assemblage of waterbirds and providing the stopover sites that allow birds to make migratory journeys. Human impact and the ongoing climate change are however reducing the ability of wetlands to provide such important services. Through field surveys, GIS analyses and climate projections, we assessed the status of, and threats to, 38 largest wetlands belonging to the Mediterranean bird flyways in Sardinia and Sicily (Italy).