Surveillance of avian influenza through bird guano in remote regions of the global south to uncover transmission dynamics.

Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) pose a growing global health threat, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where limited surveillance capacity and under-resourced healthcare systems hinder timely detection and response. Migratory birds play a significant role in the transboundary spread of AIVs, yet data from key regions along migratory flyways remain sparse. To address these surveillance gaps, we conducted a study between December 2021 and February 2023 using fresh bird guano collected across 10 countries in the Global South.

Streptococcus pyogenes Surveillance Through Surface Swab Samples to Track the Emergence of Streptococcal Toxic Shock Syndrome in Rural Japan.

Japan recently experienced a record surge in streptococcal toxic shock syndrome. Our environmental surveillance study reveals that Streptococcus pyogenes persists seasonally, peaking in autumn and winter in rural Japan. The dominant emm1 M1UK sublineage and csrS mutations heighten virulence, highlighting the urgent need for targeted surveillance and interventions.

Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination in Thailand: Averted Deaths and Severe Infections Across Age Groups.

The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the pivotal role of vaccines in mitigating the devastating impact of the virus. In Thailand, the vaccination campaign against SARS-CoV-2 began on 28 February 2021, initially prioritizing healthcare professionals before expanding into a nationwide effort on 7 June 2021. This study employs a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission with vaccination to analyze the impact of Thailand's COVID-19 vaccination program from 1 March 2021 to 31 December 2022.

Seasonal patterns of influenza incidence and the influence of meteorological and air pollution factors in Thailand during 2009-2019.

Influenza, an acute respiratory illness, remains a significant public health challenge, contributing substantially to morbidity and mortality worldwide. Its seasonal prevalence exhibits diversity across regions with distinct climates. This study aimed to explore the seasonal patterns of influenza and their correlation with meteorological and air pollution factors across six regions of Thailand.

Study of dog population dynamics and rabies awareness in Thailand using a school-based participatory research approach.

Rabies is a neglected disease primarily related to dog-mediated transmission to humans. Accurate dog demographic and dynamic data are essential for effectively planning and evaluating population management strategies when designing interventions to prevent rabies. However, in Thailand, longitudinal survey data regarding dog population size are scarce.

LSTM-Powered COVID-19 prediction in central Thailand incorporating meteorological and particulate matter data with a multi-feature selection approach.

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted public health and necessitated urgent actions to mitigate its spread. Monitoring and predicting the outbreak's progression have become vital to devise effective strategies and allocate resources efficiently. This study presents a novel approach utilizing Multivariate Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) to analyze and predict COVID-19 trends in Central Thailand, particularly emphasizing the multi-feature selection process.

Vaccination strategies impact the probability of outbreak extinction: A case study of COVID-19 transmission.

Mass vaccination has proven to be an effective control measure for mitigating the transmission of infectious diseases. Throughout history, various vaccination strategies have been employed to control infections and terminate outbreaks. In this study, we utilized the transmission of COVID-19 as a case study and constructed a stochastic age-structured compartmental model to investigate the effectiveness of different vaccination strategies.

Exploring indoor and outdoor dust as a potential tool for detection and monitoring of COVID-19 transmission.

This study investigated the potential of using SARS-CoV-2 viral concentrations in dust as an additional surveillance tool for early detection and monitoring of COVID-19 transmission. Dust samples were collected from 8 public locations in 16 districts of Bangkok, Thailand, from June to August 2021. SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in dust were quantified, and their correlation with community case incidence was assessed.

Modeling vaccination strategies with limited early COVID-19 vaccine access in low- and middle-income countries: A case study of Thailand.

Low- and middle-income countries faced significant challenges in accessing COVID-19 vaccines during the early stages of the pandemic. In this study, we utilized an age-structured modeling approach to examine the implications of various vaccination strategies, vaccine prioritization, and vaccine rollout speeds in Thailand, an upper-middle-income country experiencing vaccine shortages during the early stages of the pandemic. The model directly compares the effectiveness of several vaccination strategies, including the heterologous vaccination where CoronaVac (CV) vaccine was administered as the first dose, followed by ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZ) vaccine as the second dose, under varying disease transmission dynamics.

COVID-19 monitoring with sparse sampling of sewered and non-sewered wastewater in urban and rural communities.

Equitable SARS-CoV-2 surveillance in low-resource communities lacking centralized sewers is critical as wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) progresses. However, large-scale studies on SARS-CoV-2 detection in wastewater from low-and middle-income countries is limited because of economic and technical reasons. In this study, wastewater samples were collected twice a month from 186 urban and rural subdistricts in nine provinces of Thailand mostly having decentralized and non-sewered sanitation infrastructure and analyzed for SARS-CoV-2 RNA variants using allele-specific RT-qPCR.

Multiple traces of monkeypox detected in non-sewered wastewater with sparse sampling from a densely populated metropolitan area in Asia.

The monkeypox virus is excreted in the feces of infected individuals. Therefore, there is an interest in using viral load detection in wastewater for sentinel early surveillance at a community level and as a complementary approach to syndromic surveillance. We collected wastewater from 63 sewered and non-sewered locations in Bangkok city center between May and August 2022.

Individual-based modeling reveals that the COVID-19 isolation period can be shortened by community vaccination.

The isolation of infected individuals and quarantine of their contacts are usually employed to mitigate the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Although 14-day isolation of infected individuals could effectively reduce the risk of subsequent transmission, it also substantially impacts the patient's psychological and emotional well-being. It is, therefore, vital to investigate how the isolation duration could be shortened when effective vaccines are available.

Competitive evolution of H1N1 and H3N2 influenza viruses in the United States: A mathematical modeling study.

Seasonal influenza causes vast public health and economic impact globally. The prevention and control of the annual epidemics remain a challenge due to the antigenic evolution of the viruses. Here, we presented a novel modeling framework based on changes in amino acid sequences and relevant epidemiological data to retrospectively investigate the competitive evolution and transmission of H1N1 and H3N2 influenza viruses in the United States during October 2002 and April 2019.

Finite element analysis and optimization of microneedle arrays for transdermal vaccine delivery: comparison of coated and dissolving microneedles.

Microneedle arrays have recently been proposed as an alternative device for delivering vaccines into the skin. In recent years, many types of microneedles, such as coated and dissolving microneedles, have been developed with a variety of array configurations. However, the study that alongside compares the vaccine delivery efficiency of different types of microneedles and optimizes their arrangements on an array has been lacking.

Impact of national lockdown on the suspected SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in terms of the number of fever cases in North Korea.

After reopening the border, North Korea was experiencing community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and implemented a nationwide lockdown. We estimated that the mean transmissibility declined to <1 within 5 days after the lockdown and that the lockdown was associated with a moderate decrease in transmissibility by 11% (95% confidence interval, 6–17%).

Estimation of Excess All-Cause Mortality Due to COVID-19 in Thailand.

Thailand has experienced the most prominent COVID-19 outbreak in 2021, resulting in a new record for COVID-19 cases and deaths. To assess the influence of the COVID-19 outbreak on mortality, we estimated excess all-cause and pneumonia mortality in Thailand during the COVID-19 outbreak from April to October 2021. We used mortality from the previous 5 years to estimate the baseline number of deaths using generalized linear mixed models.

The effects of geographical distributions of buildings and roads on the spatiotemporal spread of canine rabies: An individual-based modeling study.

Rabies is a fatal disease that has been a serious health concern, especially in developing countries. Although rabies is preventable by vaccination, the spread still occurs sporadically in many countries, including Thailand. Geographical structures, habitats, and behaviors of host populations are essential factors that may result in an enormous impact on the mechanism of propagation and persistence of the disease.

Modelling of the transmission dynamics of carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae in hospitals and design of control strategies.

Carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (CRKP) has emerged as a major threat to global public health. Epidemiological and infection controls associated with CRKP are challenging because of several potential elements involved in a complicated cycle of transmission. Here, we proposed a comprehensive mathematical model to investigate the transmission dynamics of CRKP, determine factors affecting the prevalence, and evaluate the impact of interventions on transmission.

Reconstruction of the transmission dynamics of the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in Thailand.

Thailand was the first country reporting the first Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infected individual outside mainland China. Here we delineated the course of the COVID-19 outbreak together with the timeline of the control measures and public health policies employed by the Thai government during the first wave of the COVID-19 outbreak in Thailand. Based on the comprehensive epidemiological data, we reconstructed the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission in Thailand using a stochastic modeling approach.