Exploring different modelling approaches to forecast the community acute respiratory infections burden in children: an Italian epidemiological time series study.

Background: Acute respiratory infections (ARIs) in young children pose a significant global health challenge, leading to high rates of illness and death. They are estimated to be the fourth leading cause of mortality worldwide, particularly impacting children under five. This study aimed to identify the most effective time series model(s) for forecasting the epidemiological season burden of ARIs for the current 2023/2024 period in Italy.

A silent strain: the unseen burden of acute respiratory infections in children.

The significant impact of acute respiratory tract infections on healthcare systems is well-documented, given their contribution to emergency department admissions, hospitalizations, and increased use of antibiotics and other medications. However, further research is needed to understand the burden of acute respiratory tract infections in pediatric community care to develop effective public health interventions and improve child health outcomes. Real-world data were retrieved from Pedianet, an Italian network of over 200 family pediatricians.