Predicting first-trimester pregnancy outcome in threatened miscarriage: A comparison of a multivariate logistic regression and machine learning models.

Introduction: Threatened miscarriage (TM), defined as first-trimester vaginal bleeding with a closed cervix and detectable fetal cardiac activity, affects up to 30 % of clinically recognised pregnancies and is linked to increased risk of adverse outcomes. This study evaluates the predictive value of first-trimester ultrasound (US) and biochemical (BC) markers in determining outcomes among women with TM symptoms.

Methods: This prospective cohort study recruited 118 women with viable singleton pregnancies (5 to 12 weeks' gestation) from Malta's national public hospital between January 2023 and June 2024.